Abstract
In 2002, Modis published an article forecasting that the rate of change in our lives was about to stop accelerating and indeed begin decelerating. Today, with twenty years’ worth more data, Modis revisits those forecasts. He points outs that an exponential trend would have predicted the appearance of three “cosmic” milestones by now, namely in 2008, 2015, and 2018, but we have seen none. The logistic trend, however, predicted the next milestone around 2033 and could well turn out to be a cluster of achievements in AI, robotics, nanotechnology, and bioengineering, analogous to what happened with the milestone at the turn of the 20th century. He sees this as confirmation that the concept of a Singularity is not called for.
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References
Kurzweil R (2005) The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. Viking Penguin, New York, NY
Modis T (1994) Fractal aspects of natural growth. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 47(1):63–73. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(94)90040-X
Modis T (2002) Forecasting the growth of complexity and change. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 69(4):377–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(01)00172-X
Modis T, Debecker A (1992) Chaoslike states can be expected before and after logistic growth. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 41(2):111–120. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1625(92)90058-2
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Modis, T. (2020). Forecasting the Growth of Complexity and Change—An Update. In: Korotayev, A., LePoire, D. (eds) The 21st Century Singularity and Global Futures. World-Systems Evolution and Global Futures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-33730-8_4
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