Abstract
The systematic increase in the surface air temperature observed in the permafrost areas creates significant risks of reducing the functionality of the road network and other objects of road transport infrastructure. To determine the projected state of the roads and identify the most rational types, volumes and timing of measures to preserve their functionality, it is proposed to use mathematical modeling carried out on the basis of constantly updated data on current climatic changes. A means of data collection in large areas of the road network in the cryolitic zone is an information system, the main functional elements of which are a geographically distributed module of instrumental observation and a prognostic module. The modeling sequence in determining the climatic risks caused by the increase in the temperature of soils in the foundations of road transport infrastructure objects is shown. The efficiency of the prognostic module algorithms is confirmed by numerical calculations of climate risks under climate change scenario providing for a warming of 2 °C. It is shown that in the case of sandy soils, risks can be characterized as low and not requiring the implementation of expensive measures to reduce them. The presence of clay soils at the base of roads leads to risks of an average level, when, according to the results of additional economic analysis, such measures may be appropriate.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
References
Gruza, G.V., et al.: Features of the temperature regime at the surface of the globe in 2018. Fundam. Appl. Climatol. 1, 97–127 (2019). https://doi.org/10.21513/2410-8758-2019-1-97-127. (in Russian)
Anisimov, O., Kokorev, V., Zhiltcova, Y.: Arctic ecosystems and their services under changing climate: predictive-modeling assessment. Geogr. Rev. 107(1), 108–124 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1931-0846.2016.12199.x
Ye, T., Xie, Q., Wang, Y., An, Y., Jin, J.: Analog modeling of sand slope stability with different precipitation conditions. J. Mod. Transp. 26(3), 200–208 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-018-0163-0
Yakubovich, A., Trofimenko, Yu., Pospelov, P.: Principles of developing a procedure to assess consequences of natural and climatic changes for transport infrastructure facilities in permafrost regions. Transp. Res. Procedia 36, 810–816 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trpro.2018.12.076
Yakubovich, A.N., Trofimenko, Yu.V., Yakubovich, I.A., Shashina, E.V.: A forecast model for a road network’s section traffic capacity assessment on a territory of the cryolithozone in conditions of the climate change. Period. Eng. Nat. Sci. 7(1), 275–280 (2019). http://pen.ius.edu.ba/index.php/pen/article/view/380
Zhao, L., Chien, S.I., Liu, X., Liu, W.: Planning a road weather information system with GIS. J. Mod. Transp. 23(3), 176–188 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-015-0076-0
Buslaev, A.P., Yashina, M.V., Volkov, M.: Algorithmic and software aspects of information system implementation for road maintenance management. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, pp. 65–74. Springer (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19216-1_7
You, J., Wang, J., Guo, J.: Real-time crash prediction on freeways using data mining and emerging techniques. J. Mod. Transp. 25(2), 116–123 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-017-0129-7
Tishkin, V.F., Yashina, M.V., Moseva, M.S., Yashin, V.B.: Method of the GPS tracking analysis for extraction of geometrical properties. In: 2018 IEEE International Conference “Quality Management, Transport and Information Security, Information Technologies” (IT&QM&IS), St. Petersburg, pp. 266–270. IEEE Press (2018). https://doi.org/10.1109/itmqis.2018.8524946
Mardiani, G.T.: Construction industry project planning information system. In: IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering: International Conference on Informatics, Engineering, Science and Technology (INCITEST), vol. 407, no. 012093. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899x/407/1/012093
Trofimenko, Yu.V., Yakubovich, A.N.: Methods of assessing the risk of loss of functionality of roads in the territories of permafrost in connection with the projected climate changes. Saf. Technospere 5(5), 27–37 (2016). https://doi.org/10.12737/24148. (in Russian)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG
About this paper
Cite this paper
Yakubovich, A., Mayorov, S., Pyatkin, D., Yakubovich, I. (2020). Monitoring and Predicting the State of the Road Network in Russia’s Cryolitic Zone. In: Popovic, Z., Manakov, A., Breskich, V. (eds) VIII International Scientific Siberian Transport Forum. TransSiberia 2019. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, vol 1116. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37919-3_91
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-37919-3_91
Published:
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-030-37918-6
Online ISBN: 978-3-030-37919-3
eBook Packages: EngineeringEngineering (R0)