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The Nuclear Weaponization and the Patterns of Conventional Warfighting

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Patterns of Conventional Warfighting under the Nuclear Umbrella
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Abstract

This chapter is dedicated to an empirical examination of the nuclear weaponization influence on the patterns of warfighting of India, Pakistan, and Israel at the conventional battlefield. In order to explore such influence, we first examine the patterns of conventional warfighting that were practically implemented by Pakistan, India, and Israel in the pre-weaponization period. Subsequently, we explore the nuclear weaponization influence on the countries’ warfighting patterns during conventional conflicts. Accordingly, the discussion in each case study is divided into two periods—before and after crossing the nuclear weaponization threshold.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Ganguli, The Origins of War in South Asia, 17.

  2. 2.

    Ganguly & Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, 10–11.

  3. 3.

    Nawaz, Crossed Swords, 43.

  4. 4.

    Sumantra Bose (2003). Kashmir: Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace, Cambridge and London: Harvard University Press, 33.

  5. 5.

    Jones & Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, 7.

  6. 6.

    Mushtaq Ahmad Mir (April 2014). India-Pakistan: The History of Unsolved Conflicts, IOSR, Journal of Humanities and Social Science, 19/4, 105.

  7. 7.

    Arjun Subramaniam (2016). India’s Wars: A Military History 1947–1971, Noida: HarperCollins Publishers India, 113.

  8. 8.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 113–114.

  9. 9.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 199.

  10. 10.

    Agha Humayun Amin (1999). The 1947–48 Kashmir War: The War of Lost Opportunities, Lahore: Strategicus and Tacticus, https://archive.org/stream/The1947-48KashmirWarTheWarOfLostOpportunities/49202996-The-1947-48-Kashmir-War-Revised_djvu.txt. Accessed 26 October 2019.

  11. 11.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 120.

  12. 12.

    Bose, Kashmir: Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace, 35.

  13. 13.

    Ganguly & Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, 11.

  14. 14.

    Rohit Singh (Autumn 2012). Operations in Jammu and Kashmir 1947–48, Scholar Warrior, 137.

  15. 15.

    Bose, Kashmir: Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace, 37.

  16. 16.

    Russel Brines (1968). The Indo-Pakistani Conflict, London: Pall Mall Press, 71.

  17. 17.

    Bhashyam Kasturi (2008). The State of War with Pakistan, in Daniel Martson & Chandar Sundaram (Eds.), A Military History of India and South Asia, Bloomington and Indianapolis: Indiana University Press, 142.

  18. 18.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 155.

  19. 19.

    Bose, Kashmir: Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace, 40–41.

  20. 20.

    Kapur & Ganguly, The Jihad Paradox, 119.

  21. 21.

    Nawaz, Crossed Swords, 67.

  22. 22.

    Bose, Kashmir: Roots of Conflict, Paths to Peace, 41.

  23. 23.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 142.

  24. 24.

    Kapur & Ganguly, The Jihad Paradox, 119.

  25. 25.

    Paul Kapur & Sumit Ganguly (Summer 2012). The Jihad Paradox: Pakistan and Islamist Militancy in South Asia, International Security, 37/1, 118.

  26. 26.

    Kapur & Ganguly, The Jihad Paradox, 119–120.

  27. 27.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 143.

  28. 28.

    Lubnan Abid Ali (July–December 2009). The Rann of Kutch and Its Aftermath, A Research Journal of South Asian Studies, 24/2, 252.

  29. 29.

    Gauhar, Ayub Khan, 199.

  30. 30.

    Gauhar, Ayub Khan, 209.

  31. 31.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 275.

  32. 32.

    Jones & Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, 9.

  33. 33.

    Ganguly & Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, 12.

  34. 34.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 277.

  35. 35.

    Jones & Fair, Counterinsurgency in Pakistan, 10.

  36. 36.

    Gauhar, Ayub Khan, 212.

  37. 37.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 29.

  38. 38.

    Gauhar, Ayub Khan, 212–213.

  39. 39.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 29.

  40. 40.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 144.

  41. 41.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 282.

  42. 42.

    Alastair Lamb (1991). Kashmir: A Disputed Legacy, Hertfordshire: Roxford Books, 260.

  43. 43.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 30.

  44. 44.

    Brines, The Indo-Pakistani Conflict, 330.

  45. 45.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 30.

  46. 46.

    Lamb, Kashmir: A Disputed Legacy, 262.

  47. 47.

    Brines, The Indo-Pakistani Conflict, 338.

  48. 48.

    Brines, The Indo-Pakistani Conflict, 334.

  49. 49.

    Gauhar, Ayub Khan, 225.

  50. 50.

    Brines, The Indo-Pakistani Conflict, 338–342.

  51. 51.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 30.

  52. 52.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 144.

  53. 53.

    Ganguly & Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, 14.

  54. 54.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 338.

  55. 55.

    Khan, Eating Grass, 74.

  56. 56.

    Subramaniam, India’s Wars, 338.

  57. 57.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 146.

  58. 58.

    Khan, Eating Grass, 75.

  59. 59.

    Lachhman Singh (1979). Indian Sword Strikes in East Pakistan, Ghaziabad: Vikas Publishing, 23–30.

  60. 60.

    Ganguli (1986). The Origins of War in South Asia, 97.

  61. 61.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 146.

  62. 62.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 148.

  63. 63.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 147.

  64. 64.

    Khan, Eating Grass, 77.

  65. 65.

    Kapur, Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia, 73.

  66. 66.

    Malik (2006). Kargil: From Surprise to Victory, 2.

  67. 67.

    Khan, Eating Grass, 309.

  68. 68.

    Mubeen Adnan (2015). The Kargil Crisis and Pakistan’s Constraints, Journal of Political Studies, 22/1, 135.

  69. 69.

    Malik, India’s Military Conflicts and Diplomacy, 247.

  70. 70.

    Malik, India’s Military Conflicts and Diplomacy, 245.

  71. 71.

    Khan, Eating Grass, 311.

  72. 72.

    Walter Ludwig (2015). Indian Military Modernization and Conventional Deterrence in South Asia, The Journal of Strategic Studies, 38/5, 2015, 745–746.

  73. 73.

    Malik, India’s Military Conflicts and Diplomacy, 1.

  74. 74.

    Malik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory, Chapter 8.

  75. 75.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 150.

  76. 76.

    Kasturi, The State of War with Pakistan, 149.

  77. 77.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 157.

  78. 78.

    “Pakistan was to Deploy Nukes Against India During Kargil War” (2018, July 12), https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/pakistan-was-to-deploy-nukes-against-india-during-kargil-war/articleshow/50019153.cms?from=mdr. Accessed 12 November 2019.

  79. 79.

    Sadia Tasleem (2016, June 30). Pakistan’s Nuclear Use Doctrine, https://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/pakistan-s-nuclear-use-doctrine-pub-63913. Accessed 12 November 2019.

  80. 80.

    Report on Nuclear Safety, Nuclear Stability and Nuclear Strategy in Pakistan (2002, January 14), https://pugwash.org/2002/01/14/report-on-nuclear-safety-nuclear-stability-and-nuclear-strategy-in-pakistan/. Accessed 12 November 2019.

  81. 81.

    Khan, Challenges to Nuclear Stability in South Asia, 65.

  82. 82.

    Narang, Nuclear Strategy in The Modern Era, 80.

  83. 83.

    Khan, Challenges to Nuclear Stability in South Asia, 65.

  84. 84.

    Musharraf, In the Line of Fire, 88.

  85. 85.

    Malik, India’s Military Conflicts and Diplomacy, 240.

  86. 86.

    Christine Fair (2019). Militants in the Kargil Conflict: Myths, Realities, and Impacts, in Peter Lavoy (Ed.), Asymmetric Warfare in South Asia, Cambridge University Press, 233.

  87. 87.

    Ganguli & Hagerty, Fearful Symmetry, 161.

  88. 88.

    Malik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory, 253.

  89. 89.

    Malik, India’s Military Conflicts and Diplomacy, 252.

  90. 90.

    Malik, Kargil: From Surprise to Victory, Chapter 11.

  91. 91.

    Kapur, Ten Years of Instability in a Nuclear South Asia, 78.

  92. 92.

    Ganguly & Kapur, India, Pakistan, and the Bomb, 48.

  93. 93.

    Moti Golani (1997). There Will Be in the Summer War … The Road to the Sinai War 19551956, Tel Aviv: Maarahot, 438 [in Hebrew].

  94. 94.

    Matti Greenberg (2006). The Background to the War, in Hagai Golan and Shaul Shay (Eds.), 50 Years Since the Sinai War, Tel Aviv: Maarahot, 11 [in Hebrew].

  95. 95.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 47.

  96. 96.

    Aviezer Golan (2010). Sinai Campaign, Tel Aviv: Chief Education Officer, 6 [in Hebrew].

  97. 97.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 51.

  98. 98.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 12.

  99. 99.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 49.

  100. 100.

    Edward Luttwak & Dan Horowitz (1975). The Israeli Army, New York: Harper & Row Publishers, 140.

  101. 101.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 17–18.

  102. 102.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 47.

  103. 103.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 40.

  104. 104.

    Zaki Shalom (2006). The Forgotten War—Operation Kadesh and Its Political and Strategic Influences, in Hagai Golan & Shaul Shay (Eds.), 50 Years since the Sinai War, Tel Aviv: Maarahot, 280 [in Hebrew].

  105. 105.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 235.

  106. 106.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 238.

  107. 107.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 137.

  108. 108.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 88.

  109. 109.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 239.

  110. 110.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 169.

  111. 111.

    Golan, Sinai Campaign, 21.

  112. 112.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 257; Golan, Sinai Campaign, 61.

  113. 113.

    Dayan, Sinai Campaign Diary, 38.

  114. 114.

    Golan, Sinai Campaign, 35.

  115. 115.

    Michael Handel (July 1973). Israel’s Political-Military Doctrine, Occasional Papers in International Affairs, 30, Cambridge: Harvard University—Center for International Affairs, 51.

  116. 116.

    Shimon Golan (2007). War on Three Fronts: Decision-Making in High Command During the Six Day War, Tel Aviv: Maarahot, 53 [in Hebrew].

  117. 117.

    Michael Oren (2004). Six Days of War, Or Yehuda: Dvir, 89 [Hebrew].

  118. 118.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 80.

  119. 119.

    Tal, National Security, 48.

  120. 120.

    Golan (2007). War on Three Fronts, 68.

  121. 121.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 80.

  122. 122.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 81.

  123. 123.

    Oren, Six Days of War, 212.

  124. 124.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 227.

  125. 125.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 271.

  126. 126.

    Golan (2007). War on Three Fronts, 210.

  127. 127.

    Oren, Six Days of War, 225.

  128. 128.

    Oren, Six Days of War, 299.

  129. 129.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 271.

  130. 130.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 227.

  131. 131.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 250.

  132. 132.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 259–270.

  133. 133.

    Oren, Six Days of War, 273.

  134. 134.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 259–260.

  135. 135.

    Oren, Six Days of War, 310.

  136. 136.

    Oren, Six Days of War, 351.

  137. 137.

    Luttwak & Horowitz, The Israeli Army, 272.

  138. 138.

    Tal, National Security, 143.

  139. 139.

    Transcript of the Cabinet Meeting as the Security Cabinet, 4 June 1967 (Morning), http://www.archives.gov.il/archives/#/Archive/0b0717068031be32/File/0b0717068526a92b/Item/090717068526a984. Accessed 10 October 2019 [in Hebrew].

  140. 140.

    Transcript of the Cabinet Meeting as the Security Cabinet, 4 June 1967 (Morning).

  141. 141.

    Raphael Cohen Almagor (2013). The Six Day War—Interviews with Prof. Shimon Shamir and General (ret.) Aharon Yariv, Social Issues in Israel, 15, 181 [in Hebrew].

  142. 142.

    Transcript of the Security Cabinet Meeting, 4 June 1967 (Afternoon), http://www.archives.gov.il/archives/#/Archive/0b0717068031be32/File/0b0717068526a92b/Item/090717068526a984. Accessed 10 October 2019 [in Hebrew].

  143. 143.

    Elbridge Colby, Avner Cohen, William McCants, et al. (April 2013). The Israeli “Nuclear Alert” of 1973: Deterrence and Signaling in Crisis, CNA Analysis & Solutions, 8.

  144. 144.

    Elbridge Colby, Avner Cohen, William McCants, et al., The Israeli “Nuclear Alert” of 1973, 11.

  145. 145.

    Tal, National Security, 173.

  146. 146.

    Elhanan Oren (2013). History of the Yom Kippur War, Tel Aviv: Ministry of Defense, 123, 128 [in Hebrew].

  147. 147.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 334.

  148. 148.

    Abraham Rabinovich (2003). The Yom Kippur War, New York: Schoken Books, 169.

  149. 149.

    Shimon Golan (2013). The War on Yom Kippur: Decision-Making in the Supreme Command During the Yom Kippur War, Ben Shemen: Modan, 431 [in Hebrew].

  150. 150.

    Golan, The War on Yom Kippur, 534–535.

  151. 151.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 341.

  152. 152.

    Oren, History of the Yom Kippur War, 269–270.

  153. 153.

    Oren, History of the Yom Kippur War, 283–287.

  154. 154.

    Oren, History of the Yom Kippur War, 292.

  155. 155.

    Golan, The War on Yom Kippur, 900.

  156. 156.

    Kober, Military Decision in Israeli-Arabs Wars 1948–1982, 345–346.

  157. 157.

    Golan, The War on Yom Kippur, 1264.

  158. 158.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 151.

  159. 159.

    Oren, History of the Yom Kippur War, 92–93.

  160. 160.

    Abraham Rabinovich (2003). The Yom Kippur War, New York: Schoken Books, 56.

  161. 161.

    Ronen Bergman & Gil Meltzer (2003). The Yom Kippur War—Moment of Truth, Tel Aviv: Miskal, 41 [in Hebrew].

  162. 162.

    Transcript of the Meeting with the Prime Minister, 6 October 1973 (8:05 a.m.), http://www.haaretz.co.il/hasite/images/yk%206%2010%2008%2005%20.pdf. Accessed 25 October 2019 [in Hebrew].

  163. 163.

    William Burr, Avner Cohen, Kar-Erik DE Geer (2019, September 22). Blast from the Past, Foreign Policy, https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/09/22/blast-from-the-past-vela-satellite-israel-nuclear-double-flash-1979-ptbt-south-atlantic-south-africa/. Accessed 29 September 2019.

  164. 164.

    Maoz, Defending the Holy Land, 165.

  165. 165.

    Vipin Narang (2014). Nuclear Strategy in the Modern Area, Princeton: Princeton University Press, 184.

  166. 166.

    William Schwartz & Charles Derber (1993). The Nuclear Seduction, Berkley and Los Angeles: University of California Press, 109.

  167. 167.

    Hersh, The Samson Option, 166.

  168. 168.

    Elbridge Colby, Avner Cohen, William McCants, et al., The Israeli “Nuclear Alert” of 1973, 34.

  169. 169.

    Elbridge Colby, Avner Cohen, William McCants, et al., The Israeli “Nuclear Alert” of 1973, 34.

  170. 170.

    Elbridge Colby, Avner Cohen, William McCants, et al., The Israeli “Nuclear Alert” of 1973, 42–43.

  171. 171.

    Oren, History of the Yom Kippur War, 103.

  172. 172.

    Golan, The War on Yom Kippur, 67.

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Davidzon, I. (2020). The Nuclear Weaponization and the Patterns of Conventional Warfighting. In: Patterns of Conventional Warfighting under the Nuclear Umbrella. Palgrave Pivot, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45594-1_6

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