Abstract
This strategic analysis of the body count introduces a general discussion on the measurement of war violence and excess mortality, its treatment by the media, humanitarian organisations, governments and the military, and its legal and political implications. It also examines narratives that contribute to inflate or minimize the statistics of excess mortality in armed conflicts. Emotion, the myth of a golden age, humanitarian advocacy, the political economy of the media, military propaganda, the visibility of certain battles and methodological issues all play an important role in this regard. Many factors push journalists and relief workers to choose the highest estimates of excess mortality. However, inflated figures desensitize the public to mass atrocities, encourage a dynamic where high numbers are required to justify action, and challenge the credibility of population studies and advocacy groups.
They exaggerate. The city of Balak was not reduced to ashes in a few hours but in a few days. They claim that 200 villages were burnt and there were only 99. What you call plague is only typhus. And no, it’s not true that all women were raped and girls sold as slaves; some of them could escape. Prisoners were not only emasculated, but also beheaded, so the situation is not that bad. The child who was allegedly impaled was actually hit by a bayonet. When there is one, you see two, you always double, etc. etc.
This way to dispute horror and indignation is a shame. Nothing is worst than mollifying atrocities. It is subtlety pleading for Barbary.
Victor Hugo advocating an international intervention to save the Serbs from being massacred by the Turks (Hugo 1926, p. 5 author’s translation)
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Notes
- 1.
Timisoara is no exception. In Bulgaria in 1876, 150,000 Christians were reported to have been killed by Muslims with the complicity of the Ottoman authorities. Historians now put the real figure at around 3,000. See Saab (1991, p. 24).
- 2.
On the necessity to rely on press reports to understand the narratives of violence, the perceptions of insecurity and the patterns of homicides even in developed countries, see also Roth (2009).
- 3.
- 4.
See Chap. 6 in this volume by Samrat Sinha.
- 5.
- 6.
Against this position, jurist Tristan Ferraro argues that a certain threshold of intensity contributes to define a civil war but not an international armed conflict. According to him, the mere capture of a soldier, or minor skirmishes between the forces of two or more states, are enough to lead to the applicability of the Geneva Convention s , insofar as such acts evidence a genuine belligerent intent. See Ferraro, Tristan [2014], “The applicability and application of international humanitarian law to multinational forces”, International Review of the Red Cross pp. 15–6.
- 7.
Edward Herman and David Peterson were clearly biased. In their book, they did not mention controversies about the death toll in Iraq. However they did contest the estimation of 200,000 Muslim deaths during the Bosnian war, an exaggeration which, according to them, was used as a pretext to prove the risk of genocide and justify a foreign military intervention against the Serbian socialist regime. See Herman and Peterson (2010, pp. 34–5).
- 8.
To rally public opinion, combat political manipulations and prove the existence of a famine in post-war Germany in 1919, the founder of Save the Children thus needed figures regarding the number of persons in need of aid. See Mulley (2009, p. 236).
- 9.
I thank my colleague Michel Garenne for this information.
- 10.
- 11.
- 12.
See also Pérouse de Montclos (2010).
- 13.
- 14.
Marylène Patou-Mathis, for instance, found little evidence of bellicose confrontations in available fossils before the Palaeolithic period. In the same vein, Ragnar Numelin claims that precolonial wars in Africa were rare and killed very little. There were no permanent armies but hunting parties and raiders. The fighting was local and did not last long. See Patou-Mathis (2013), Keeley (1996) and Numelin (1963).
References
Adams, S. (1994). War of numbers: An intelligence memoir. South Royalton: Steerforth Press.
Ali, M., & Shah, I. (2000). Sanctions and childhood mortality in Iraq. The Lancet, 355(9218), 1851–1857.
Ali, M., Blacker, J., & Jones, G. (2003). Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991–98. Population Studies, 57(2), 217–226.
Baron, E. (2009). Mesurer, analyser, publier et innover. In J.-H. Bradol & C. Vidal (Eds.), Innovations médicales en situations humanitaires: le travail de Médecins sans frontières. Paris: l’Harmattan.
Barranco, J., & Wisler, D. (1999). Validity and systematicity of newspaper data in event analysis. European Sociological Review, 15(3), 301–322.
Best, J. (2001). Damned lies and statistics: Untangling numbers from the media, politicians, and activists. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Best, J. (2004). More damned lies and statistics: How numbers confuse public issues. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Binet, L. (2013). Somalie 1991–1993: Guerre civile, alerte à la famine et intervention militaro-humanitaire. Paris: MSF, Prises de Parole publiques.
Blacker, J. (2007). The demography of Mau Mau: Fertility and mortality in Kenya in the 1950s, a demographer’s viewpoint. African Affairs, 106(423), 205–227.
Brauman, R. (2011). Catastrophes naturelles: Do something! In C. Magone, M. Neuman, & F. Weissman (Eds.), Agir à tout prix ? Négociations humanitaires: l’expérience de Médecins Sans Frontières. Paris: La Découverte.
Burnham, G., Lafta, R., Doocy, S., & Roberts, L. (2006). Mortality after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: A cross-sectional cluster sample survey. The Lancet, 368(9545), 1421–1428.
Checchi, F., & Roberts, L. (2005). Interpreting and using mortality data in humanitarian emergencies: A primer for non-epidemiologists (Humanitarian Practice Network Paper n°52). London: Humanitarian Practice Network.
Coghlan, B., et al. (2006). Mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: A nationwide survey. The Lancet, 367(9504), 44–51.
Coghlan, B., et al. (2009). Update on mortality in the Democratic Republic of Congo: Results from a third nationwide survey. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 3(2), 88–96.
Collier, P. (2003). Breaking the conflict trap: Civil war and development policy (World Bank, Policy Research report). Washington: World Bank.
Collier, P., & Hoeffler, A. (2002). On the Incidence of civil war in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(1), 13–28.
Couturier, A. (2006). Le gouverneur et son miroir: Marcel de Coppet (1881–1968). Paris: L’Harmattan.
Daly, M., & Wilson, M. (1988). Homicide. New York: A. de Gruyter.
Daponte, B. (2007). Wartime estimates of Iraqi civilian casualties. International Review of the Red Cross, 89(868), 943–957.
Davenport, C., & Ball, P. (2002). Views to a kill: Exploring the implications of source selection in the case of Guatemalan state terror, 1977–1995. The Journal of Conflict Resolution, 46(3), 427–450.
Degomme, O., & Guha-Sapir, D. (2010). Patterns of mortality rates in Darfur conflict. The Lancet, 375(9711), 294–300.
Development Initiatives. (2012). Global humanitarian assistance report 2012. London: Development Initiatives.
Diehl, P., & Druckman, D. (2010). Evaluating peace operations. Boulder: Lynne Rienner.
du Plan, M. (2008). Enquête démographique et de Santé, République démocratique du Congo, 2007. Calverton: Macro International.
Dyson, T. (2009). New evidence on child mortality in Iraq. Economic and Political Weekly, 44(2), 56–59.
Earl, J. (2004). The use of newspaper data in the study of collective action. Annual Review of Sociology, 30, 65–80.
Eisner, M. (2003). Long-term historical trends in violent crime. Crime and Justice, 30, 83–142.
Eisner, M. (2008). Modernity strikes back? A historical perspective on the latest increase in interpersonal violence (1960–1990). International Journal of Conflict and Violence, 2(2), 288–316.
Elkins, C. (2005). Britain’s gulag: The brutal end of empire in Kenya. London: Pimlico.
Ferguson, N. (2006). Prisoner taking and prisoner killing: The dynamics of defeat, surrender and barbarity in the age of total war. In G. Kassimeris (Ed.), The barbarization of warfare. New York: New York University Press.
Foley, C. (2008). The thin blue line: How humanitarianism went to war. New York: Verso.
Fredj, C. (2010). Compter les morts de Crimée: un tournant sur l’identité professionnelle des médecins de l’armée française (1865–1882). Histoire, économie & société, 29(3), 95–108.
Ghobarah, H. A., Huth, P., & Russett, B. (2003). Civil wars kill and maim people-long after the shooting stops. The American Political Science Review, 97(2), 189–202.
Guisnel, J. (2007). Derrière la guerre du Biafra, la France. In R. Faligot & J. Guisnel (Eds.), Histoire secrète de la Ve République. Paris: La Découverte.
Hafner-Burton, E. (2008). Sticks and stones: Naming and shaming the human rights enforcement problem. International Organization, 62, 689–716.
Hagan, J., & Wenona, R.-R. (2010). The ambiguous genocide: The U.S. State Department and the death toll in Darfur. In P. Andreas & K. M. Greenhill (Eds.), Sex, drugs and body counts: The politics of numbers in global crime and conflict (pp. 159–187). New York: Cornell University Press.
Hansch, S. (1994). Lives lost, lives saved: Excess mortality and the impact of health interventions in the Somalia emergency. Washington, DC: Refugee Policy Group.
Hayner, P. (2011). Unspeakable truths: Transitional justice and the challenge of truth commissions. New York: Routledge.
Herman, A. (1997). The idea of decline in Western history. New York: Free Press.
Herman, E., & Peterson, D. (2010). The politics of genocide. New York: Monthly Review Press.
Hirschman, C., Preston, S., & Loi, V. M. (1995, déc). Vietnamese casualties during the American war: A new estimate. Population and Development Review, 21(4), 783–812.
Huff, D. (1954). How to lie with statistics. New York: Norton.
Hugo, V. (1926). Oeuvres completes, Actes et paroles IV. Depuis l’exil, 1876–1885. Paris: Albin Michel.
Iraq Family Health Survey Study Group. (2008). Violence-related mortality in Iraq from 2002 to 2006. The New England Journal of Medicine, 358(5), 484–493.
Jackman, R., & Boyd, W. (1979). Mutiple sources in the collection of data on political conflict. American Journal of Political Science, 23(2), 434–458.
Jackson, R. (1993). Armed humanitarianism. International Journal, 48, 579–606.
Jeangène Vilmer, J.-B. (2012). La guerre au nom de l’humanité. Tuer ou laisser mourir. Paris: PUF.
Jeune Afrique. (2011, September 25). p. 8.
Johnson, N., Spagat, M., Gourley, S., Onnela, J.-P., & Reinert, G. (2008). Bias in epidemiological studies of conflict mortality. Journal of Peace Research, 45(5), 653–663.
Kalyvas, S. (2004). The urban bias in research on civil wars. Security Studies, 13(3), 160–190.
Keeley, L. (1996). War before civilization. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Knightley, P. (2004). The first casualty: The war correspondent as hero and myth-maker from the Crimea to Iraq. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Krüger, J., Ball, P., Price, M., & Green, A. H. (2013). It doesn’t add up. Methodological and policy implications of conflicting casualty data. In T. B. Seybolt, J. D. Aronson, & B. Fischhoff (Eds.), Counting civilian casualties: An introduction to recording and estimating non-military deaths in conflict (pp. 53–77). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kuperman, A. (2005). Suicidal rebellions and the moral hazard of humanitarian intervention. Ethnopolitics, 4(2), 149–173.
Kuperman, A. (2013). A model humanitarian intervention? Reassessing NATO’s Libya Campaign. International Security, 38(1), 105–136.
Ladier-Fouladi, M. (2003). Population et politique en Iran: de la monarchie à la République islamique. Paris: Institut national d’études démographiques.
Lambert, A., & Lohlé-Tart, L. (2009). La surmortalité au Congo (RDC) durant les troubles de 1998–2004: Une estimation des décès en surnombre, scientifiquement fondée à partir des méthodes de la démographie. Bruxelles: Association pour le Développement de la Recherche Appliquée en Sciences Sociales. http://www.congoforum.be/upldocs/Surmortalit%C3%A9.pdf
Leitenberg, M. (2006). Deaths in wars and conflicts in the 20th century (Cornell University Peace Studies Program Occasional Paper n°29). Ithaca: Cornell University Peace Studies Program.
Levene, M., & Roberts, P. (Eds.). (1999). The massacre in history. Providence: Berghahn.
Lewy, G. (1978). America in Vietnam. New York: Oxford University Press.
Mamdani, M. (2011). Responsibility to protect or right to punish? In P. Cunliffe (Ed.), Critical perspectives on the responsibility to protect. Interrogating theory and practice. London: Routledge.
MSF. (2011). République centrafricaine: une crise silencieuse. Amsterdam: Médecins sans frontiers.
Mucchielli, L. (2011). L’invention de la violence: des peurs, des chiffres, des faits. Paris: Fayard.
Muchembled, R. (2008). Une histoire de la violence: de la fin du Moyen-Age à nos jours. Paris: Seuil.
Mulley, C. (2009). The woman who saved the children: A biography of Eglantyne Jebb, founder of Save the Children. Oxford: Oneworld.
Natsios, A. (2001). The great North Korean famine. Washington, DC: US Institute for Peace Press.
Nettlefield, L. (2010). Research and repercussions of death tolls: The case of the Bosnian book of the dead. In P. Andreas & K. M. Greenhill (Eds.), Sex, drugs and body counts: The politics of numbers in global crime and conflict (pp. 159–187). New York: Cornell University Press.
Nordland, R. (2011, September 17). Libya counts more martyrs than bodies. New York Times, p. A1.
Numelin, R. (1963). Intertribal relations in Central and South Africa. Helsinki: Societas Scientarum Fennica.
Pape, R. (2012). When duty calls. A pragmatic standard of humanitarian intervention. International Security, 37(1), 41–80.
Patou-Mathis, M. (2013). Préhistoire de la violence et de la guerre. Paris: Odile Jacob.
Pérouse de Montclos, M.-A. (2009). Du développement à l’humanitaire, ou le triomphe de la com. Revue Tiers monde, 200, 751–766.
Pérouse de Montclos, M.-A. (2010). Comptes et légendes des guerres africaines: polémiques et politiques des chiffres de la mortalité violente. Politique étrangère, 3, 661–671.
Pérouse de Montclos, M.-A. (2012). Crises et migrations: Effets de rhétorique autour d’un enjeu politique (Working Paper du CEPED n°20, 14p). Paris: CEPED. http://www.ceped.org/wp
Pinker, S. (2011). The better angels of our nature: The decline of violence in history and its causes (802p). New York: Viking.
Quinn-Judge, S. (2011). Fraternal aid, self-defence, or self-interest? Vietnam’s intervention in Cambodia (1978–1989). In B. Simms & D. J. B. Trim (Eds.), Humanitarian intervention: A history. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Ramcharan, B. (2010). Preventive human rights strategies. New York: Routledge.
Restrepo, J., Spagat, M., & Vargas, J. (2004). The dynamics of the Colombian civil conflict: A new data set. Homo Oeconomicus, 21(2), 396–428.
Roberts, L., Zantop, M., et al. (2003). Elevated mortality associated with armed conflict—Democratic republic of Congo, 2002. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 52(20), 469–471.
Roberts, L., et al. (2004). Mortality before and after the 2003 invasion of Iraq: Cluster sample survey. The Lancet, 364(9448), 1857–1864.
Rodogno, D. (2011). The European powers’ intervention in Macedonia, 1903–1908: An instance of humanitarian intervention? In B. Simms & D. Trim (Eds.), Humanitarian intervention: A history. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Roth, R. (2009). American homicide. Cambridge, MA: The Belknap Press of Harvard University Press.
Saab, A. P. (1991). Reluctant icon: Gladstone, Bulgaria, and the working classes, 1856–1878. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Saro-Wiwa, K. (1992). Genocide in Nigeria: The Ogoni tragedy. Port Harcourt: Saros.
Seybolt, T., Aronson, J., & Fischhoff, B. (2013). Counting civilian casualties: An introduction to recording and estimating nonmilitary deaths in conflict. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Siegler, A., et al. (2008). Media coverage of violent deaths in Iraq: An opportunistic capture-recapture assessment. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine, 23(4), 369–371.
Solarz, S., & O’Hanlon, M. (1997). Humanitarian intervention: When is force justified? Washington Quarterly, 20(4), 3–14.
Spagat, M. (2010). Ethical and data-integrity problems in the second lancet survey of mortality in Iraq. Defence and Peace Economics, 21(1), 1–41.
Spagat, M. (2012). Estimating the human costs of war: The sample survey approach. In M. R. Garfinkel & S. Skaperdas (Eds.), The Oxford handbook of the economics of peace and conflict (pp. 318–341). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Spiegel, P., & Salama, P. (2000). War and mortality in Kosovo, 1998–99: An epidemiological testimony. The Lancet, 355(9222), 2204–2209.
Spirer, H. (1998). Misused statistics. New York: Marcel Dekker.
Spirer, H., & Seltzer, A. (2008). Obtaining evidence for the international criminal court using data and quantitative analysis. In J. Asher, D. Banks, & F. Scheuren (Eds.), Statistical methods for human rights. New York: Springer.
Stephan, L. (2011, June 9). Questions autour d’affrontements dans le nord-ouest de la Syrie. Le Monde, p. 4.
Suhrke, A., & Samset, I. (2007). What’s in a figure? Estimating recurrence of civil war. International Peacekeeping, 14(2), 195–203.
Toole, M., & Waldman, R. (1990). Prevention of excess mortality in refugee and displaced populations in developing countries. JAMA, the Journal of the American Medical Association, 263(24), 3296–3302.
Truong, N. (2011, November 25). L’opération libyenne était-elle une “guerre juste” ou juste une guerre? Le Monde, pp. 24–25.
Urlacher, B. (2009). Wolfowitz conjecture: A research note on civil war and news coverage. International Studies Perspectives, 10(2), 186–197.
von Clausewitz, C. (1982). On war. Harmondsworth: Penguin.
Walter, B. (2004). Does conflict beget conflict? Explaining recurring civil war. Journal of Peace Research, 41(3), 371–388.
Walzer, M. (1978). Just and unjust wars: A moral argument with historical illustrations. New York: Basic Books.
Zaidi, S. (1997). Child mortality in Iraq. The Lancet, 350(9084).
Zaidi, S., & Smith, M. F. (1995). Health of Baghdad’s children. The Lancet, 346(8988), 1485.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2016 Springer International Publishing Switzerland
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
de Montclos, MA.P. (2016). Numbers Count: Dead Bodies, Statistics, and the Politics of Armed Conflicts. In: Pérouse de Montclos, MA., Minor, E., Sinha, S. (eds) Violence, Statistics, and the Politics of Accounting for the Dead. Demographic Transformation and Socio-Economic Development, vol 4. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12036-2_3
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-12036-2_3
Publisher Name: Springer, Cham
Print ISBN: 978-3-319-12035-5
Online ISBN: 978-3-319-12036-2
eBook Packages: Social SciencesSocial Sciences (R0)