Abstract
Extensive urban planning implementation evaluation research has reported that actual urban growth significantly deviates from planned urban forms officially approved by planning departments in China. Researchers, planners and decision makers are interested in whether a planned urban form can be fully implemented in future. In this chapter, we propose an approach “form scenario analysis” (FSA) for examining the “possibility of implementing planned urban forms. This process is of the opposite to conventional urban growth scenario analysis, in which development policies are set as the input scenario conditions to generate various urban forms in future. A constrained cellular automata tool as a planning support system is developed for applying the FSA approach to evaluate planned urban forms. This model employs a planned urban form as the input scenario condition, aiming to identify whether any of the existing development policies can be used to realize the predefined urban form. If yes, the development policies required for the scenario form can be followed. To illustrate the applicability of FSA, we evaluated four planning alternatives for the Beijing Master Plan 2020 using the tool. The corresponding policy parameters are generated, together with in-depth policy implications for the study area. Our finding is that the planned urban form approved by the State Council of P. R. China (Alternative A in the paper) cannot be realized in the context of the current development policies of Beijing. The other three alternatives (Alternative B, C and D) differ from each other in terms of implementation probability and development policies required. This suggests that planners can adopt this simple tool to eliminate impossible planned urban forms at the early stage of compiling plans.
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Long, Y., Shen, Z. (2015). Target or Dream? Examining the Possibility of Implementing Planned Urban Forms Using a Constrained Cellular Automata Model. In: Geospatial Analysis to Support Urban Planning in Beijing. GeoJournal Library, vol 116. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19342-7_2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-19342-7_2
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