Abstract
The mitigation of seismic risk in Italy could be considerably helped by the recognition of the seismic zones most prone to next strong earthquake. An attempt at achieving such information has been made by considering the present knowledge about the tectonic setting in the study area and its possible connection with the spatio-temporal distribution of major historical earthquakes. The results of such investigation suggest that at present the probability of major socks is highest in the Northern Apennines.
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Appendix
Appendix
List of earthquakes used for the diagrams of Fig. 6. M is the magnitude, Cat is the reference to seismic catalogues listed as follows: (1) Albini (2004); (2) Ambraseys (1990); (3) Global CMT Catalog (Ekström et al. 2012); (4) Working Group CPTI (2004); (5) Rovida et al. (2011); (6) Guidoboni and Comastri (2005); (7) ISIDe Working Group (INGV) (2010); (8) Karnik (1971); (9) Mariotti and Guidoboni (2006); (10) Seismological Catalogues of Greece; (11) Makropoulos et al. (2012); (12) Margottini et al. (1993); (13) Comninakis and Papazachos (1986); (14) Papazachos and Papazachos (1989); (15) Ribaric (1982); (16) Shebalin et al. (1974); (17) Stucchi et al. (2012); (18) Shebalin et al. (1998); (19) Toth et al. (1988).
Hellenides | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y-m-d) | M | Cat |
1278-2-25 | 6.6 | 17 |
1469 | 6.6 | 17 |
1577 | 6.2 | 17 |
1601-4-26 | 6.3 | 17 |
1612-5-26 | 6.3 | 17 |
1613-10-12 | 6.3 | 17 |
1625-6-28 | 6.5 | 17 |
1630-7-2 | 6.5 | 17 |
1636-9-20 | 7.2 | 10 |
1638-7-16 | 6.3 | 17 |
1650 | 6.5 | 14 |
1651-2-26 | 5.9 | 17 |
1658-8-24 | 6.7 | 17 |
1666-11 | 6.2 | 18 |
1674-1-16 | 6.3 | 17 |
1701-4-5 | 6.6 | 17 |
1704-11-22 | 6.4 | 17 |
1709 | 6.2 | 17 |
1714-9-8 | 6.3 | 17 |
1722-6-5 | 6.3 | 17 |
1723-2-22 | 6.3 | 17 |
1732-11 | 6.6 | 17 |
1736 | 6 | 10 |
1741-6-23 | 6.3 | 17 |
1743-2-20 | 6.9 | 10 |
1759-6-13 | 6.3 | 17 |
1766-7-24 | 6.6 | 17 |
1767-7-22 | 6.7 | 17 |
1769-10-12 | 6.8 | 14 |
1772-5-12 | 6.1 | 18 |
1773-5-23 | 6.5 | 10 |
1783-3-23 | 6.6 | 17 |
1783-6-7 | 6.5 | 10 |
1786-2-5 | 6.5 | 17 |
1815 | 6.3 | 17 |
1820-2-21 | 6.6 | 17 |
1823-6-19 | 6.1 | 17 |
1825-1-19 | 6.7 | 17 |
1826-1-26 | 5.8 | 17 |
1833-1-19 | 6.5 | 14 |
1851-10-12 | 6.8 | 17 |
1858-4-5 | 6 | 10 |
1858-9-20 | 6.2 | 17 |
1858-10-10 | 6.4 | 17 |
1859-9-12 | 6 | 18 |
1860-4-10 | 6.4 | 18 |
1862-3-14 | 6.4 | 17 |
1862-10-4 | 6.2 | 17 |
1865-10-10 | 6.3 | 17 |
1866-1-2 | 6.6 | 17 |
1866-3-2 | 6.3 | 18 |
1866-12-4 | 6.4 | 17 |
1867-2-4 | 7.2 | 17 |
1869-8-14 | 6 | 18 |
1869-12-28 | 6.7 | 17 |
1871-4-9 | 5.8 | 17 |
1872-2-11 | 6 | 18 |
1883-6-27 | 5.5 | 10 |
1883-8 | 5.5 | 10 |
1885-12-14 | 6 | 10 |
1889-4-1 | 5.9 | 17 |
1890-5-21 | 5.9 | 17 |
1891-6-27 | 5.8 | 17 |
1893-6-14 | 6.6 | 17 |
1895-5-13 | 6.2 | 17 |
1895-5-14 | 6.5 | 17 |
1895-5-15 | 6.2 | 17 |
1895-6-16 | 6.2 | 18 |
1896-2-10 | 5.5 | 18 |
1896-3-18 | 5.8 | 18 |
1897-1-17 | 6.6 | 17 |
1912-1-24 | 6.1 | 11 |
1914-11-27 | 5.9 | 11 |
1915-1-27 | 6.1 | 11 |
1915-8-7 | 6.3 | 11 |
1915-8-10 | 5.6 | 11 |
1915-8-10 | 6 | 11 |
1915-8-11 | 5.7 | 11 |
1915-8-19 | 5.9 | 11 |
1917-5-23 | 5.6 | 11 |
1920-10-21 | 5.6 | 11 |
1920-11-26 | 6 | 18 |
1920-11-29 | 5.5 | 18 |
1921-9-13 | 5.5 | 11 |
1930-11-21 | 5.8 | 18 |
1938-3-13 | 5.7 | 11 |
1939-9-20 | 5.5 | 11 |
1943-2-14 | 5.6 | 11 |
1948-4-22 | 6.5 | 11 |
1948-6-30 | 6.5 | 11 |
1953-8-9 | 5.9 | 11 |
1953-8-11 | 6.6 | 11 |
1953-8-12 | 7 | 11 |
1953-8-12 | 5.7 | 11 |
1953-8-12 | 5.9 | 11 |
1953-10-21 | 6.2 | 11 |
1960-11-5 | 5.7 | 11 |
1967-2-9 | 5.5 | 11 |
1970-7-2 | 5.8 | 11 |
1972-9-17 | 5.8 | 11 |
1973-11-4 | 5.8 | 11 |
1976-1-18 | 5.6 | 11 |
1979-11-6 | 5.6 | 11 |
1983-1-17 | 6.7 | 11 |
1983-1-19 | 5.5 | 11 |
1983-3-23 | 6 | 11 |
1987-2-27 | 5.6 | 3 |
1988-5-18 | 5.5 | 3 |
1990-6-16 | 5.8 | 3 |
1992-1-23 | 5.6 | 3 |
1993-6-13 | 5.7 | 3 |
1994-2-25 | 5.5 | 3 |
2000-5-26 | 5.6 | 3 |
2003-8-14 | 6.2 | 3 |
2003-8-14 | 5.5 | 3 |
2007-3-25 | 5.7 | 3 |
Calabrian arc | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y–m–d) | M | Cat |
1509-2-25 | 5.6 | 5 |
1626-4-4 | 6 | 5 |
1638-3-27 | 7 | 5 |
1638-6-8 | 6.9 | 5 |
1659-11-5 | 6.6 | 5 |
1693-1-8 | 5.7 | 5 |
1708-1-26 | 5.5 | 5 |
1743-12-7 | 5.7 | 5 |
1744-3-21 | 5.7 | 5 |
1767-7-14 | 6 | 5 |
1783-2-5 | 7 | 5 |
1783-2-7 | 6.6 | 5 |
1783-3-28 | 7 | 5 |
1791-10-13 | 6 | 5 |
1832-3-8 | 6.6 | 5 |
1835-10-12 | 5.8 | 5 |
1836-4-25 | 6.2 | 5 |
1854-2-12 | 6.2 | 5 |
1870-10-4 | 6.1 | 5 |
1886-3-6 | 5.6 | 5 |
1887-12-3 | 5.5 | 5 |
1894-11-16 | 6.1 | 5 |
1905-9-8 | 7 | 5 |
1907-10-23 | 5.9 | 5 |
1908-12-28 | 7.1 | 5 |
1913-6-28 | 5.7 | 5 |
1928-3-7 | 5.8 | 5 |
1947-5-11 | 5.7 | 5 |
South dinarides | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y–m–d) | M | Cat |
1237-3 | 6.2 | 18 |
1270-3 | 6.5 | 6 |
1273-3 | 6.5 | 10 |
1359 | 6 | 6 |
1380 | 6.1 | 17 |
1444 | 6.4 | 18 |
1451 | 6.1 | 18 |
1471 | 6.1 | 18 |
1472 | 5.7 | 18 |
1473-1-20 | 5.5 | 18 |
1479-10-20 | 5.5 | 18 |
1480-10-18 | 5.5 | 18 |
1482-2-15 | 6.2 | 18 |
1520-5-17 | 6 | 17 |
1559-6-24 | 6 | 1 |
1563-6-13 | 6.1 | 18 |
1608-7-25 | 5.6 | 17 |
1617 | 6.2 | 18 |
1632 | 6 | 17 |
1639-7-28 | 6.4 | 18 |
1667-4-6 | 7.5 | 18 |
1713-1-0 | 6.3 | 17 |
1780-9-21 | 6.5 | 18 |
1816 | 6.3 | 18 |
1823-8-7 | 5.7 | 18 |
1827-4-17 | 6.5 | 18 |
1830 | 5.6 | 18 |
1833-1-19 | 6.5 | 14 |
1837-10-4 | 5.5 | 18 |
1843-9-5 | 6.2 | 17 |
1843-9-26 | 5.6 | 18 |
1848 | 6.4 | 17 |
1850-4-13 | 5.6 | 17 |
1851-1-20 | 6 | 18 |
1851-10-17 | 6.2 | 18 |
1851-10-17 | 6.6 | 17 |
1851-10-20 | 6.3 | 18 |
1851-12-29 | 5.5 | 18 |
1852-8-26 | 6.2 | 17 |
1853-12-11 | 5.7 | 18 |
1855-7-3 | 6.6 | 10 |
1855-7-5 | 6.8 | 18 |
1855-7-16 | 5.5 | 18 |
1855-8-14 | 5.5 | 18 |
1865-10-10 | 5.5 | 18 |
1869-1-10 | 5.6 | 18 |
1869-3-18 | 6 | 18 |
1869-4-14 | 5.5 | 17 |
1869-9-1 | 6.2 | 18 |
1870-9-28 | 6.5 | 17 |
1876-6-4 | 6.3 | 18 |
1876-6-5 | 5.6 | 18 |
1894-4-6 | 5.9 | 17 |
1895-5-14 | 5.5 | 18 |
1895-6-21 | 5.5 | 18 |
1895-8-6 | 6.2 | 17 |
1895-10-8 | 5.5 | 18 |
1896-2-10 | 5.9 | 17 |
1896-2-10 | 6.2 | 17 |
1905-6-1 | 6.6 | 18 |
1905-6-1 | 5.5 | 18 |
1905-6-3 | 5.5 | 18 |
1905-8-4 | 6 | 18 |
1905-8-6 | 5.5 | 18 |
1906-3-1 | 6.4 | 18 |
1907-8-1 | 5.7 | 18 |
1907-8-16 | 6.2 | 18 |
1920-11-29 | 5.6 | 13 |
1920-12-18 | 5.6 | 18 |
1921-3-30 | 5.6 | 11 |
1922-4-11 | 5.6 | 18 |
1926-12-17 | 5.8 | 18 |
1926-12-17 | 5.8 | 18 |
1927-2-14 | 6 | 18 |
1934-2-4 | 5.6 | 18 |
1935-3-31 | 5.6 | 11 |
1940-2-23 | 5.5 | 18 |
1948-8-27 | 5.5 | 18 |
1958-4-3 | 5.6 | 18 |
1959-8-17 | 5.9 | 18 |
1959-9-1 | 6.2 | 18 |
1959-10-7 | 5.6 | 18 |
1962-3-18 | 6.2 | 18 |
1968-11-3 | 5.5 | 18 |
1969-4-3 | 5.5 | 11 |
1970-8-19 | 5.5 | 18 |
1979-4-15 | 7 | 2 |
1979-4-15 | 5.7 | 11 |
1979-5-24 | 6.4 | 18 |
1982-11-16 | 5.7 | 18 |
1988-1-9 | 5.7 | 18 |
1996-9-5 | 6 | 3 |
South apennines | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y–m–d) | M | Cat |
1273-12-18 | 5.8 | 5 |
1293-9-4 | 5.8 | 5 |
1361-7-17 | 6 | 5 |
1456-12-5 | 7.2 | 5 |
1456-12-5 | 7 | 6 |
1456-12-5 | 6.3 | 6 |
1466-1-15 | 6.1 | 5 |
1561-7-31 | 5.6 | 5 |
1561-8-19 | 6.8 | 5 |
1625-9-0 | 5.8 | 5 |
1688-6-5 | 7 | 5 |
1694-9-8 | 6.8 | 5 |
1702-3-14 | 6.5 | 5 |
1732-11-29 | 6.6 | 5 |
1805-7-26 | 6.6 | 5 |
1826-2-1 | 5.8 | 5 |
1831-1-2 | 5.5 | 5 |
1836-11-20 | 6 | 5 |
1851-8-14 | 6.4 | 5 |
1853-4-9 | 5.6 | 5 |
1857-12-16 | 7 | 5 |
1885-12-26 | 5.5 | 5 |
1910-6-7 | 5.7 | 5 |
1930-7-23 | 6.6 | 5 |
1962-8-21 | 5.7 | 5 |
1962-8-21 | 6.1 | 5 |
1980-11-23 | 6.9 | 5 |
1990-5-5 | 5.8 | 5 |
1990-5-5 | 5.5 | 5 |
1998-9-9 | 5.6 | 5 |
2002-10-31 | 5.7 | 5 |
2002-11-1 | 5.7 | 5 |
Central apennines | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y-m-d) | M | Cat |
1120-3-25 | 5.8 | 5 |
1170-5-9 | 5.6 | 5 |
1209 | 6 | 6 |
1315-12-3 | 5.6 | 5 |
1348-9-13 | 5.6 | 5 |
1349-9-9 | 5.9 | 5 |
1349-9-9 | 6 | 6 |
1349-9-9 | 6.6 | 5 |
1456-12-5 | 5.8 | 6 |
1461-11-27 | 6.4 | 5 |
1599-11-6 | 6 | 5 |
1639-10-7 | 5.9 | 5 |
1654-7-24 | 6.3 | 5 |
1703-1-14 | 6.7 | 5 |
1703-1-16 | 5.9 | 17 |
1703-2-2 | 6.7 | 5 |
1706-11-3 | 6.8 | 5 |
1730-5-12 | 5.9 | 5 |
1762-10-6 | 6 | 5 |
1859-8-22 | 5.5 | 5 |
1874-12-6 | 5.5 | 5 |
1879-2-23 | 5.6 | 5 |
1881-9-10 | 5.6 | 5 |
1904-2-24 | 5.6 | 5 |
1915-1-13 | 7 | 5 |
1916-11-16 | 5.5 | 5 |
1933-9-26 | 6 | 5 |
1943-10-3 | 5.8 | 5 |
1950-9-5 | 5.7 | 5 |
1979-9-19 | 5.9 | 5 |
1984-5-7 | 5.9 | 5 |
1984-5-11 | 5.5 | 5 |
2009-4-6 | 6.2 | 5 |
North apennines | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y-m-d) | M | Cat |
1269-9 | 5.6 | 5 |
1277 | 5.6 | 5 |
1279-4-30 | 5.6 | 5 |
1279-4-30 | 6.3 | 5 |
1293-3 | 5.6 | 5 |
1298-12-1 | 6.2 | 5 |
1328-12-1 | 6.4 | 5 |
1352-12-25 | 6.4 | 5 |
1353-1-1 | 6 | 6 |
1389-10-18 | 6 | 5 |
1428-7-3 | 5.5 | 5 |
1438-6-11 | 5.6 | 5 |
1458-4-26 | 5.8 | 5 |
1470-4-11 | 5.6 | 5 |
1481-5-7 | 5.6 | 5 |
1483-8-11 | 5.7 | 5 |
1497-3-3 | 5.9 | 6 |
1501-6-5 | 6 | 5 |
1505-1-3 | 5.6 | 5 |
1542-6-13 | 5.9 | 5 |
1558-4-13 | 5.8 | 5 |
1570-11-17 | 5.5 | 5 |
1584-9-10 | 5.8 | 5 |
1624-3-19 | 5.5 | 5 |
1661-3-22 | 6.1 | 5 |
1672-4-14 | 5.6 | 5 |
1688-4-11 | 5.8 | 5 |
1690-12-23 | 5.6 | 5 |
1719-6-27 | 5.5 | 5 |
1741-4-24 | 6.2 | 5 |
1747-4-17 | 5.9 | 5 |
1751-7-27 | 6.3 | 5 |
1768-10-19 | 5.9 | 5 |
1781-4-4 | 5.9 | 5 |
1781-6-3 | 6.4 | 5 |
1781-7-17 | 5.6 | 5 |
1786-12-25 | 5.6 | 5 |
1789-9-30 | 5.8 | 5 |
1791-10-11 | 5.5 | 5 |
1796-10-22 | 5.6 | 5 |
1799-7-28 | 6.1 | 5 |
1815-9-3 | 5.5 | 5 |
1828-10-9 | 5.8 | 5 |
1831-9-11 | 5.5 | 5 |
1832-1-13 | 6.3 | 5 |
1832-3-13 | 5.5 | 5 |
1834-2-14 | 5.8 | 5 |
1837-4-11 | 5.8 | 5 |
1854-2-12 | 5.6 | 5 |
1870-10-30 | 5.6 | 5 |
1873-3-12 | 6 | 5 |
1875-3-17 | 5.9 | 5 |
1897-9-21 | 5.5 | 5 |
1909-1-13 | 5.5 | 5 |
1914-10-27 | 5.8 | 5 |
1916-5-17 | 6 | 5 |
1916-8-16 | 6.1 | 5 |
1916-8-16 | 5.5 | 5 |
1917-4-26 | 5.9 | 5 |
1918-11-10 | 5.9 | 5 |
1919-6-29 | 6.3 | 5 |
1920-9-7 | 6.5 | 5 |
1930-10-30 | 5.8 | 5 |
1971-7-15 | 5.6 | 5 |
1984-4-29 | 5.7 | 5 |
1997-9-26 | 5.7 | 5 |
1997-9-26 | 6 | 5 |
1997-10-6 | 5.5 | 5 |
1997-10-14 | 5.7 | 5 |
2012-5-20 | 5.9 | 7 |
2012-5-29 | 5.8 | 7 |
Eastern Alps–Northern dinarides | ||
|---|---|---|
Date (y-m-d) | M | Cat |
1323 | 6 | 5 |
1348-1-25 | 7 | 5 |
1403-9-6 | 5.6 | 5 |
1502-3-26 | 5.7 | 18 |
1511-3-26 | 7 | 5 |
1511-6-25 | 5.6 | 17 |
1511-8-8 | 6.3 | 18 |
1551-3-26 | 6.3 | 18 |
1574-8-14 | 5.6 | 5 |
1626-7-3 | 6.5 | 18 |
1628-6-17 | 5.6 | 4 |
1640 | 6 | 4 |
1645 | 5.6 | 4 |
1648 | 5.7 | 18 |
1689-3-10 | 5.6 | 4 |
1690-12-4 | 6.5 | 5 |
1695-2-25 | 6.5 | 5 |
1697-3-15 | 5.6 | 4 |
1699-2-11 | 5.6 | 4 |
1700-7-28 | 5.6 | 5 |
1721-1-12 | 6.1 | 5 |
1750-12-17 | 5.9 | 18 |
1775-10-13 | 6.8 | 19 |
1776-7-10 | 5.8 | 5 |
1794-6-7 | 6 | 5 |
1802-1-4 | 5.6 | 18 |
1812-10-25 | 5.7 | 5 |
1836-6-12 | 5.5 | 5 |
1845-12-12 | 5.7 | 18 |
1870-3-1 | 6.4 | 18 |
1870-3-1 | 5.6 | 17 |
1873-6-29 | 6.3 | 5 |
1878-9-23 | 5.6 | 17 |
1880-11-9 | 6.3 | 18 |
1891-6-7 | 5.9 | 5 |
1895-4-14 | 6.2 | 5 |
1897-5-15 | 5.6 | 5 |
1905-12-17 | 5.6 | 18 |
1906-1-2 | 6.1 | 18 |
1916-3-12 | 5.6 | 5 |
1917-1-29 | 5.8 | 4 |
1926-1-1 | 5.9 | 5 |
1928-3-27 | 5.8 | 5 |
1936-10-18 | 6.1 | 5 |
1976-5-6 | 6.5 | 5 |
1976-9-11 | 5.6 | 5 |
1976-9-15 | 5.9 | 5 |
1976-9-15 | 6 | 18 |
1976-9-15 | 6 | 5 |
1998-4-12 | 5.7 | 3 |
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Mantovani, E. et al. (2016). Recognition of periAdriatic Seismic Zones Most Prone to Next Major Earthquakes: Insights from a Deterministic Approach. In: D'Amico, S. (eds) Earthquakes and Their Impact on Society. Springer Natural Hazards. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-21753-6_2
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