Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Participatory Modeling and Community Dialog About Vulnerability of Lobster Fishing to Climate Change

  • Chapter
  • First Online:
Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders

Abstract

The US National Research Council has repeatedly called for an analytic-deliberative process to make environmental decisions. Such a process should bring together experts, local citizens, stakeholders, and decision makers in venues where they investigate, discuss and learn together, make decisions, and follow up with monitoring, evaluation, and adjustment. In this spirit, we have developed a community-based participatory modeling experience that gathers and organizes local and expert knowledge and then uses the model to inform public policy dialog. This chapter tells the story of how, over 24 months, we engaged a group of lobstermen and community members in South Thomaston, Maine. The group characterized how climate change is impacting the lobster fishery and the community. It also identified resilience actions they could take to better understand the complex connections between fishing effort, timing of lobster molting, and the price of lobster. We used system dynamics modeling to estimate these connections using available data from participants, scientific reports and publications, and data gathered by regulatory authorities. The model lets participants run scenarios that characterize how different resilience action strategies affect landings and fishermen’s income. We met with individual lobstermen to fine-tune the model and to explore its applications and then presented the model and its simulations back to the community. We also prepared a booklet that summarized NOAA data about ocean temperatures and distributed it in the community. These products helped promote community deliberation about how to enhance resilience to climate change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this chapter

Log in via an institution
Chapter
USD 29.95
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
eBook
USD 99.00
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Available as EPUB and PDF
  • Read on any device
  • Instant download
  • Own it forever
Softcover Book
USD 129.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Compact, lightweight edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info
Hardcover Book
USD 199.99
Price excludes VAT (USA)
  • Durable hardcover edition
  • Dispatched in 3 to 5 business days
  • Free shipping worldwide - see info

Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout

Purchases are for personal use only

Institutional subscriptions

References

  • Andersen DF, Vennix JA, Richardson GP, Rouwette EA (2007) Group model building: problem structuring, policy simulation and decision support. J Oper Res Soc 58:691–694

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bradbury JA (1998) Expanding the rationale for analysis and deliberation: looking beyond understanding risk. Hum Ecol Rev 5:42–44

    Google Scholar 

  • Burgess J, Stirling A, Clark J, Davies G, Eames M, Staley K, Williamson S (2007) Deliberative mapping: a novel analytic-deliberative methodology to support contested science-policy decisions. Public Underst Sci 16(3):299–322

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cavana RY, Ford A (2004) Environmental and resource systems: editors’ introduction. Syst Dyn Rev 20(2):89–98

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cockerill K, Daniel L, Malczynski L, Tidwell V (2009) A fresh look at a policy sciences methodology: collaborative modeling for more effective policy. Policy Sci 42(3):211–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Costanza R, Ruth M (1998) Using dynamic modeling to scope environment problems and build consensus. Environ Manag 22(2):183–195

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dietz T (2013) Bringing values and deliberation to science communication. Proc Natl Acad Sci 110(3):14081–14087

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Flanagan TR, Christakis AN (2010) The talking point: creating an environment for exploring complex meaning. Information Age Publishing, Charlotte

    Google Scholar 

  • Ford A, Flynn H (2005) Statistical screening of system dynamics models. Syst Dyn Rev 21(4):273–303

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frazier TG, Wood N, Yarnal B (2010) Stakeholder perspectives on land-use strategies for adapting to climate-change-enhanced coastal hazards: Sarasota, Florida. Appl Geogr 30:506–517

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Größler A (2007) System dynamics projects that failed to make an impact. Syst Dyn Rev 23(4):437–452

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hare M (2011) Forms of participatory modelling and its potential for widespread adoption in the water sector. Environ Policy Gov 21(6):386–402

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2014) Climate Change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Working Group II. http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg2/

  • ISEE Systems (2014) STELLA: systems thinking for education and research. Retrieved from: http://www.iseesystems.com/softwares/Education/StellaSoftware.aspx. Accessed 14 Jun 2014

  • Isenberg DJ (1986) Group polarization: a critical review and meta-analysis. J Pers Soc Psychol 50(6):1141–1151

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karjalainen TP, Marttunen M, Sarkki S, Rytkönen AM (2013) Integrating ecosystem services into environmental impact assessment: an analytic–deliberative approach. Environ Impact Assess Rev 40:54–64

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kettle N, Dow K, Tuler S, Webler T, Whitehead J, Miller K (2014) Integrating scientific and local knowledge to inform risk-based management approaches for climate adaptation. Public date (Web): August 14, 2014

    Google Scholar 

  • Kirshen P, Ruth M, Anderson W (2008) Interdependencies of urban climate change impacts and adaptation strategies: a case study of Metropolitan Boston USA. Clim Chang 86(1–2):105–122

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korfmacher KS (1998) Water quality modeling for environmental management: lessons from the policy sciences. Policy Sci 31(1):35–54

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Korzybski AN (1933) Science and sanity. An introduction to Non-Aristotelian Systems. Science Press Printing Co, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Lane DC (2008) The emergence and use of diagramming in system dynamics: a critical account. Syst Res Behav Sci 25(1):3–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J, Dietz T, Carpenter SR, Alberti M, Folke C, Moran E (2007) Complexity of coupled human and natural systems. Science 317(5844):1513–1516

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Maine Department of Marine Fisheries (2013) Most recent Maine commercial landings. Retrieved from: http://www.maine.gov/dmr/commercialfishing/documents/09-13Top10PortsByValue.Table.pdf

  • Mastrandrea MD, Heller NE, Root TL, Schneider SH (2010) Bridging the gap: linking climate-impacts research with adaptation planning and management. Clim Chang 100:87–101

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mendoza GA, Martins H (2006) Multi-criteria decision analysis in natural resource management: a critical review of methods and new modelling paradigms. For Ecol Manag 230(1):1–22

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mendoza GA, Prabhu R (2005) Combining participatory modeling and multi-criteria analysis for community-based forest management. For Ecol Manag 207(1–2):145–156

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Metcalf SS, Wheeler E, BenDor TK, Lubinski KS, Hannon BM (2010) Sharing the floodplain: mediated modeling for environmental management. Environ Model Softw 25(11):1282–1290

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Morgan MG, Fischhoff B, Bostrom A, Atman C (2001) Risk communication: the mental models approach. Cambridge University Press, New York

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Mutz DC (2006) Hearing the other side: deliberative versus participatory democracy. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • North W, Stern PC, Webler T, Field P (2014) Public and stakeholder participation for managing and reducing the risks of shale gas development. Environ Sci Technol. Publication Date (Web): April 29, 2014. doi:10.1021/es405170k

  • NRC (1996) Understanding risk: informing decisions in a democratic society. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (1999a) Making climate forecasts matter. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (1999b) New strategies for America’s watersheds. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (2002) Drama of the commons. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (2008) Public participation in environmental decision making. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • NRC (2010) Advancing the science of climate change. National Academy Press, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Otto P, Struben J (2004) Gloucester Fishery: insights from a group modeling intervention. Syst Dyn Rev 20(4):287–312

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paolisso M, Trombley J, Hood RR, Sellner KG (2013) Environmental models and public stakeholders in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Estuar Coasts 38(1):97–113. doi:10.1007/s12237-013-9650-z

    Google Scholar 

  • Perry SL (2012) Environmental reviews and case studies: addressing the societal costs of unconventional oil and gas exploration and production: a framework for evaluating short-term, future, and cumulative risks and uncertainties of hydrofracking. Environ Pract 14(04):352–365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Renn O (1999) A model for an analytic-deliberative process in risk management. Environ Sci Technol 33(18):3049–3055

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Rodriguez-Piñeros S, Lewis DK (2013) Analysis and deliberation as a mechanism to assess changes in preferences for indicators of sustainable forest management: a case study in Puebla, Mexico. J Environ Manag 128:52–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rouwette EA, Vennix JA, Mullekom TV (2002) Group model building effectiveness: a review of assessment studies. Syst Dyn Rev 18(1):5–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheppard S (2012) Visualizing climate change: a guide to visual communication of climate change and developing local solutions. Routledge, Abingdon

    Google Scholar 

  • Squires H, Renn O (2011) Can participatory modelling support social learning in marine fisheries? Reflections from the invest in Fish South West Project. Environ Policy Gov 21(6):403–416

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Susskind L, Jain R, Martynuik A (2001) Better environmental policy studies: how to design and conduct more effective analyses. Island, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Thompson DF (2008) Deliberative democratic theory and empirical political science. Annu Rev Polit Sci 11:497–520

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tidwell VC, Van Den Brink C (2008) Cooperative modeling: linking science, communication, and ground water planning. Groundwater 46(2):174–182

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Tribbia J, Moser SC (2008) More than information: what coastal managers need to plan for climate change. Environ Sci Pol 11(4):315–328

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tuler S, Webler T (1999) Designing an analytic deliberative process for environmental health policy making in the US nuclear weapons complex. RISK Health Saf Environ 10(1):65–87

    Google Scholar 

  • U.S. Census Bureau (2012) American Community Survey. Table S2401. Occupation by sex and median earnings in the past 12 months (in 2012 inflation-adjusted dollars) for the civilian employed population 16 years and over. Retrieved from: http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tableservices/jsf/pages/productview.xhtml?src=CF. Assessed 17 Oct 2014

  • Van den Belt M (2004) Mediated modeling: a system dynamics approach to environmental consensus building. Island, Washington

    Google Scholar 

  • Voinov A, Gaddis B (2008) Lessons for successful participatory watershed modeling: a perspective from modeling practitioners. Ecol Model 216(2):197–207

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webler T, Tuler S (1999) Integrating technical analysis with deliberation in regional watershed management planning: applying the National Research Council approach. Policy Stud J 27(3):530–543

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webler T, Tuler S, Dietz T (2011) Modellers’ and outreach professionals’ views on the role of models in watershed management. Environ Policy Gov 21(6):472–486

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webler T, Tuler S, Dow K, Whitehead J, Kettle N (2014) Design and evaluation of a local analytic-deliberative process for climate adaptation. Local Environ. Public date (Web): July 17, 2014. doi:10.1080/13549839.2014.930425

  • Winz I, Brierley G, Trowsdale S (2009) The use of system dynamics simulation in water resources management. Water Resour Manag 23(7):1301–1323

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

This work was funded by the NOAA Climate Program under grant number NA12OAR4310106. We would like to thank all the lobstermen and community members in South Thomaston who took time out of their busy lives to patiently work with us. We would also like to recognize the important contributions to the project by Sherman Hoyt, formerly of Maine Sea Grant and now a consultant and to Sam Belknap, a University of Maine NSF IGERT Fellow. Both provided their local knowledge with the midcoast Maine lobster industry and the South Thomaston community of lobstermen. They conducted outreach and participated in meetings. Professor Robert Steneck of the University of Maine and Dr. Carl Wilson with Maine Department of Marine Resources generously donated their time in meetings, presenting current research and information as a framework for discussion. Kristen Grant of Maine Sea Grant assisted with interviews and meetings. Brian Seitzman of Clark University provided his expertise to help complete the SD Model. Many thanks to Anne Baker and Yue Sun, graduate students from Clark University who worked to make GIS data relevant and accessible to the working group. Seth Tuler was involved with general project coordination. Special thanks go out to Penny Alley, South Thomaston Librarian for her hospitality and her assistance with our meetings in the South Thomaston Historical Society. A project advisory committee comprising Joe Costa, Kirstin Dow, Troy Hartley, Michael Johnston, Patricia Pinto da Silva, and Dave Whitaker provided frequent insights and valuable recommendations.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Studies, Keene State College, 229 Main Street, Keene, NH, 03435, USA

    Thomas Webler

  2. University of Maine Cooperative Extension and Maine Sea Grant, 377 Manktown Rd, Waldoboro, ME, 04572, USA

    Esperanza Stancioff

  3. Environmental Science and Policy Program, Clark University, 950 Main Street, Worcester, MA, 01610, USA

    Rob Goble

  4. North Carolina Sea Grant, North Carolina State University, 1575 Varsity Drive, Varsity Research Building, Module 1, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA

    Jessica Whitehead

Authors
  1. Thomas Webler
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Esperanza Stancioff
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Rob Goble
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  4. Jessica Whitehead
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Thomas Webler .

Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Community Sustainability, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan, USA

    Steven Gray

  2. Department of Anthropology, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland, USA

    Michael Paolisso

  3. Department of Human Ecology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, USA

    Rebecca Jordan

  4. Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Wellington, New Zealand

    Stefan Gray

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

Copyright information

© 2017 Springer International Publishing Switzerland

About this chapter

Cite this chapter

Webler, T., Stancioff, E., Goble, R., Whitehead, J. (2017). Participatory Modeling and Community Dialog About Vulnerability of Lobster Fishing to Climate Change. In: Gray, S., Paolisso, M., Jordan, R., Gray, S. (eds) Environmental Modeling with Stakeholders. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-25053-3_13

Download citation

Publish with us

Policies and ethics

Search

Navigation