From The Limits to Growth to 2052

Abstract

This chapter summarizes the content of and the debate around The Limits to Growth and its updates, from 1972 until 2012. It presents the background and political context to the original 1972 study, and follows the debate in and around the four books on whether a ‘fair and free market’ can provide sufficient benefits for us all. The methodology of systems dynamics is briefly introduced. The analyses are presented in some detail, as are the reactions from both academia and political and economic interests following the books’ publication. The two main research questions are why the debate around Limits to Growth became so polarized, and what we have learned about the original scenarios over the last four decades. The chapter therefore includes a synthesis of research on how the original World3 Standard run has compared to subsequent reality. Randers’ forecast for the next forty years constitutes the fitting end point for this analysis.