Potential Transformation Pathways Towards Low-Carbon Cities

Abstract

How cities respond to the challenge posed by climate change will fundamentally shape the global response and determine much of humanity’s success or failure at dealing with the mitigation and adaptation imperatives. This chapter argues that in order to achieve a desired outcome we need to think differently about how cities plan for long-term transformation to a low-carbon future, and begin by thinking about what we would like to achieve in order to then inform and shape our response. It presents a methodology for generating future scenarios through a hybridised Delphi-backcasting approach with key local actors. It presents two possible scenarios for a low-carbon future and it might be achieved, based on a stakeholder engagement exercise conducted in the city of Bristol, UK. This research sought to gather, refine, and prioritise preferred options for a future city held by core actors in the city, to create shared visions of a successful low-carbon future to inform local decision-making. The chapter then draws some conclusions about the utility of such a method, the results generated, and the implications of participatory scenario exercises for policy and achieving low-carbon futures.