Abstract
This chapter describes fundamental principles of earthquake forecasting in an effort to show how large earthquakes in Nepal are both common and foreseeable. The chapter uses simply mathematical equations to calculate how often earthquakes similar to the Gorkha earthquake can be expected in Nepal and the wider Himalayan region. This is contrasted with the lay view in much of Nepal of earthquakes being entirely random and unforeseeable events. It discusses how a simple understanding of earthquake processes and behaviours can yield better understanding of earthquake recurrence.
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Neupane, S. (2018). The Science of Earthquake Forecasting: What’s Next for Nepal and the Himalayan Region?. In: Bracken, L., A. Ruszczyk, H., Robinson, T. (eds) Evolving Narratives of Hazard and Risk. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65211-5_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-65211-5_5
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