Abstract
Floods, landslides, and mudslides are frequent phenomena in Rio de Janeiro state (RJ). In the past decades, several catastrophic events have occurred and caused severe damages to people and infrastructure. In contrast, the persistent droughts that affected Southeast Brazil between 2014 and 2017 are phenomena that were not known earlier – at least in such frequency and intensity. Climate scenarios predict that extreme events will further increase in the future leading to increased heavy rainfall events on the one hand and longer dry spells on the other. In this chapter, we provide an overview on the different types of natural hazards, their occurrence (frequency) and intensity, and historical disasters caused by these hazards in RJ. Furthermore, we reconstruct in how far climate variability and human impact (in particular deforestation) affected the occurrence of hydrometeorological hazards in the Holocene. Based on the analysis of historical trends and modeling outcomes under different climate scenarios, we discuss potential future hazards.
Resumo (Português) Ameaças Naturaís e Impactos das Mudanças Climáticas no Estado do Rio de Janeiro: Uma Análise Histórica da Paisagem
Inundações e deslizamentos de terra são fenômenos frequentes no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Nas últimas décadas, ocorreram vários eventos catastróficos que causaram graves danos às pessoas e à infraestrutura. Em constraste, as persistentes secas que afetaram o Sudeste do Brasil entre 2012 e 2016 são fenômenos que não eram conhecidos em tempos mais recentes - pelo menos com tamanha frequência e intensidade. Os cenários climáticos preveem que os eventos extremos serão mais frequentes no futuro, levando ao aumento de ocorrências pluviométricos intensas de um lado, e a períodos de seca, de outro. Neste capítulo, fornecemos uma visão geral sobre os diferentes tipos de riscos naturais, sua ocorrência (frequência) e intensidade, bem como os desastres históricos causados por esses ameaças no Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Além disso, reconstruímos em até que ponto a variabilidade climática e o impacto humano (em particular o desmatamento) afetaram a ocorrência de ameaças hidrometeorológicas no holoceno. Com base na análise das tendências históricas e nos resultados das modelagens em diferentes cenários climáticos, discutimos os perigos potenciais.
Resumen (Español) Amenazas Naturales e Impactos de Cambio Climático en el Estado de Río de Janeiro: Un Análisis Histórico de Paisaje
Inundaciones y deslizamiento de tierras son fenómenos frecuentes en el Estado de Río de Janeiro. En las últimas décadas ocurrieron varios eventos catastróficos que causaron graves daños a personas e infraestructuras. En contraste, las diferentes sequías que afectaron el Sudeste de Brasil entre 2012 y 2016, son fenómenos que no se conocían anteriormente – por lo menos a tal frecuencia e intensidad. Los escenarios climáticos prevén que los eventos extremos irán aumentando aún más en el futuro, lo que conducirá a un aumento en los eventos de lluvias intensas, por un lado, y períodos secos más largos por el otro. Este capítulo provee una visión general sobre los diferentes tipos de riesgos naturales, su ocurrencia (frecuencia) e intensidad, así como los desastres históricos causados por estas amenazas en el Estado de Río de Janeiro. Igualmente, reconstruimos en qué medida la variabilidad climática y el impacto humano (en particular la deforestación) afecta la ocurrencia de amenazas hidrometeorológicas en el Holoceno. Con base al análisis de tendencias históricas y los resultados de modelajes bajo diferentes escenarios climáticos, discutimos los potenciales peligros.
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Nehren, U., Kirchner, A., Lange, W., Follador, M., Anhuf, D. (2019). Natural Hazards and Climate Change Impacts in the State of Rio de Janeiro: A Landscape Historical Analysis. In: Nehren, U., Schlϋter, S., Raedig, C., Sattler, D., Hissa, H. (eds) Strategies and Tools for a Sustainable Rural Rio de Janeiro. Springer Series on Environmental Management. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-89644-1_20
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