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Uncertainties of a Nuclear-Air-Blast Induced Ground Displacement Model

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Sustainable Design and Construction for Geomaterials and Geostructures (GeoChina 2018)

Part of the book series: Sustainable Civil Infrastructures ((SUCI))

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Abstract

Scenario based design of strategic underground structures is increasingly becoming important with increasing capacities of nuclear warheads. The ground displacement caused by nuclear-air-blast is an important design parameter for such structures. A simplified model to compute ground displacement, proposed earlier by authors, is recommended for preliminary designs in professional practice. This paper quantifies the uncertainties associated with this simplified model as well as its input parameters namely P-wave velocity, strain recovery ratio, velocity ratio, and constrained modulus, while estimating the nuclear blast induced ground displacement. The model uncertainty quantification is generally accomplished using sampling based Bayesian updating techniques. However, this is a computationally time-consuming process and not suitable with increasing number of model parameters. To circumvent this, an alternate simplified model uncertainty characterization approach is developed based on Taylor’s series approximation. The validity of the proposed approach is established by comparing the results for a simple case of an earth pressure problem, routinely encountered in geotechnical engineering, against Bayesian approach. Subsequently, this simplified approach has been used to quantify the model uncertainties of air-blast induced ground displacement model and it is observed that this model is biased towards conservative side.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, New Delhi, India

    Shashank Pathak & G. V. Ramana

Authors
  1. Shashank Pathak
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  2. G. V. Ramana
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Correspondence to Shashank Pathak .

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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Technology Sydney, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

    Behzad Fatahi

  2. University of Zambia, Lusaka, Zambia

    Aron Mwanza

  3. Chung Yuan Christian University, Taoyuan City, Taiwan

    Dave T.T. Chang

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Pathak, S., Ramana, G.V. (2019). Uncertainties of a Nuclear-Air-Blast Induced Ground Displacement Model. In: Fatahi, B., Mwanza, A., Chang, D. (eds) Sustainable Design and Construction for Geomaterials and Geostructures. GeoChina 2018. Sustainable Civil Infrastructures. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-95753-1_15

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