Data Classification for Selection of Temporal Alerting Methods for Biosurveillance

Abstract

This study presents and applies a methodology for selecting anomaly detection algorithms for biosurveillance time series data. The study employs both an authentic dataset and a simulated dataset which are freely available for replication of the results presented and for extended analysis. Using this approach, a public health monitor may choose algorithms that will be suited to the scale and behavior of the data of interest based on the calculation of simple discriminants from a limited sample. The tabular classification of typical time series behaviors using these discriminants is achieved using the ROC approach of detection theory, with realistic, stochastic, simulated signals injected into the data. The study catalogues the detection performance of 6 algorithms across data types and shows that for practical alert rates, sensitivity gains of 20% and higher may be achieved by appropriate algorithm selection.