Abstract
Power load forecasting is an important part in the planning of power transmission construction. Considering the importance of the peak load to the dispatching and management of the system, the error of peak load is proposed in this paper as criteria to evaluate the effect of the forecasting model. The accuracy of short term load forecasting is directly related to the operation of power generators and grid scheduling. Firstly, the historical load data is preprocessed with vertical and horizontal pretreatment in the paper; Secondly, it takes advantage of fractal and time serial characteristic of load data to design a fractal dimension calculate method for disperse sampling data; Thirdly, the forecasting data image is made by fractal interpolation, the vertical proportion parameter which be used in the interpolation is determined by the similar historical load data, the image can review change condition between load spot. In the view of the nonlinear and complexity in the change of the short-term load, according to current load forecasting technology application and project needs in practice, combined with fractal theory, this paper built a short-term load forecasting model, and obtain good results.
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Wang, Y., Niu, D., Ji, L. (2011). Optimization of Short-Term Load Forecasting Based on Fractal Theory. In: Nguyen, N.T., Trawiński, B., Jung, J.J. (eds) New Challenges for Intelligent Information and Database Systems. Studies in Computational Intelligence, vol 351. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19953-0_18
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-19953-0_18
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