Abstract
It is well known that day-to-day changes of atmospheric motions are not predictable beyond a few weeks because of nonlinear dynamical interactions which can amplify even small initial errors due to incorrect observations used for defining the initial state of the atmosphere, or imperfect governing equations used for making predictions (Lorenz, 1965). However, is it possible that, despite the lack of predictability of day-to-day weather, monthly and seasonal averages of weather variable can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to be of some value for practical applications? In this paper, we attempt to answer this question by reviewing our current knowledge of observed variability and our understanding of physical processes that determine the interannual variability and predictability of monthly and seasonal averages. We also summarize the recent attempts to predict monthly and seasonal mean atmospheric circulation using dynamical models.
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Shukla, J. (1993). Predictability of Short-Term Climate Variations. In: Shukla, J. (eds) Prediction of Interannual Climate Variations. NATO ASI Series, vol 6. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76960-3_12
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-76960-3_12
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
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