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Climate Change and the Future of Agriculture

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Innovation, Resources and Economic Growth

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Abstract

The purpose of this essay is to review our current knowledge of the potential effects of climate change on agriculture and world food supply. Attention is first directed to the types of climate change, particularly reductions in soil water availability, likely to be most critical for agriculture. Secondly, a number of types of effects on agriculture are considered: “direct” effects of elevated CO2 shifts of thermal and moisture limits to cropping, effects on drought, heat stress and other extremes, effects on pests, weeds and diseases, and effects on soil fertility. Thirdly, a summary is presented of likely overall effects on crop and livestock production. The conclusion is that, while global levels of food production can probably be maintained in the face of climate change, the cost of this could be substantial. There could occur severe negative effects at the regional level. Increases in productive potential at higher latitudes are not likely to open up large new areas for production. The gains in productive potential here are unlikely to balance possible reductions in potential in some major grain-exporting regions at mid-latitudes.

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Authors
  1. Martin Parry
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Editors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Political Sciences, Università Cattolica, Largo Gemelli 1, I-20121, Milan, Italy

    Alberto Quadrio Curzio

  2. Faculty of Political Sciences CRANEC-Center of Economic Analysis and International Economy, Università Cattolica, Via Necchi 5, I-20121, Milano, Italy

    Marco Fortis  & Roberto Zoboli  & 

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© 1994 Springer-Verlag Berlin · Heidelberg

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Parry, M. (1994). Climate Change and the Future of Agriculture. In: Curzio, A.Q., Fortis, M., Zoboli, R. (eds) Innovation, Resources and Economic Growth. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-78855-0_9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-78855-0_9

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg

  • Print ISBN: 978-3-642-78857-4

  • Online ISBN: 978-3-642-78855-0

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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