Abstract
The climate and the meteorological conditions throughout the year are of extreme importance in the deflagration and propagation of forest fires. Using the registered data from meteorological stations and forecasts, it is possible to establish the denominated meteorological fire risk index. This, mathematically, translates the fire risk that a given region is subject to, taking into consideration only meteorological conditions. The probable climatic changes, related to the emission of greenhouse gases, may come to affect the fire risk of a given region. The approach adopted to evaluate the impact of climate change on the fire weather risk (FWR) over Portugal is based on a numerical downscaling technique (from global to regional scale). The results of a general circulation model, for presentday conditions and for a climate centred in the year 2050, are used as initial and boundary conditions for a mesoscale model of atmospheric flow. This was applied to an area including Continental Portugal, for both considered situations, in terms of global simulation. The information obtained has been used to calculate the FWR with reference to the two simulated situations. Two FWR indexes were applied, the Angström and the Lourenço indexes. Globally, the prognosis is for an increase in the meteorological fire risk in Continental Portugal, for a climate scenario corresponding to the year 2050.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Baldasano, J.M., Costa, M., Cremades, L., Flassak, T. and Wortmann-Vierthaler, M., 1993: Influence of traffic conditions on the air quality of Barcelona during the Olympic Games’92. Air Pollution Modelling and Its Application X, New York: S-V. (Gryning & M.M. Millán, Eds.), Plenum Press, 643–644.
Boer, G. J., Arpe, K., Blackburn, M., Déqué, M., Gates, T.L., le Treut, H., Roeckner, E., Sheinin, D.A., Simmonds, I., Smith, R.N.B., Tokioka, T., Wetherald, R.T. and Williamson, D., 1991: An intercomparison of the climates simulated by 14 atmospheric general circulation models. World Meteorological Organization/International Council of Scientific Unions World Climate Research Programme, Report No. 15, WMO/TD — No. 425, 37 pp. plus maps.
Borrego, C., Barros, N., Miranda, A. I., Carvalho, A. C. and Valinhas, M. J., 1998: Validation of two photochemical numerical systems under complex mesoscale circulations. 23r d Int. Tech. Meeting of NATO/CCMS on “Air Pollution Modelling and its Application “, September 28-October 2, Varna, Bulgaria, 411–418.
Borrego, C., Carvalho, A.C. and Miranda, A. I., 1999: Numerical simulation of wind flow over complex terrain. Measuring and Modelling Investigation of Environmental Processes (R. San Jose, Ed.), 2, 271–297.
Chandler, C., Cheney, Ph., Thomas, Ph., Trabaud, L. and Williams, D., 1991: Fire in Forest. Volume I: Forest Fire Behaviour and Effects. Krieger Publishing Company, Malabar, Florida.
CNAFF, 1991: Manual do Vigilante da Floresta. (Coordenação Nacional de Acções de Fogos Florestais — C.N.A.F.F., Ed.).
Coutinho, M. and Miranda, A. I., 1993: Aplicação de modelos meteorológicos de mesoscala para o estudo da qualidade do ar em Portugal. 2° Congresso Nacional de Engenheiros do Ambiente. Maia.
Coutinho, M., Rocha, A. and Borrego, C., 1994: Numerical simulation of meso-meteorological circulations in the Lisbon region. Air Pollution Modelling and its Applications X. (S. Gryning and M. Millan, eds), Plenum Press, 53–62.
Coutinho, M., Baldasano, J. M. and Calbò, J., 1994: Simulation of typical meso-meteorological circulations occurring during winter in the Barcelona region. Air Pollution II, Vol I: Computer simulation. (J. Baldasano, C. Brebbia, H. Power and P. Zannetti,Eds.), Computational Mechanics Publications, 23–30.
Flanningan, M., Wottom, M., Carcaillet, C., Richard, P., Campbell, I. And Bergeron, Y., 1998: Fire weather: Past, Present and Future. Proc. from the3 rd International Conference on Forest Fires Research and the14 th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology. Luso, 16–20 November 1998, Portugal. Volume I, 113–128.
Flassak, T., 1990: Ein nicht-hydrostatisches mesoslaliges modell zur beschreibung der dynamik der planetaren grezschicht. Fortsch Ber. — VDI, Reihe 15, Nr 74, VDI — Verlag. http://climate.usfs.msu.edu/climatology/firewx
Lourenço, L., 1991: Uma fórmula expedita para determinar o ĺndice Meteorológico de risco de eclosão de fogos florestais em Portugal Continental. Cadernos CientÃficos sobre Incêndios Florestais. N°2 Separata. Grupo de Mecânica dos FluÃdos, Dep. Engenharia Mecânica, Universidade de Coimbra.
Miranda, A. I. and Borrego, C., 1996: A prognostic meteorological model applied to the study of a forest fire. The Int. Jour. of Wildland Fire 6, 157–163.
Miranda, A. I., 1998: Efeito dos incêndios florestais na qualidade do ar. Ph.D Thesis, University of Aveiro, Aveiro, Portugal.
Mitchell, J. F. B. and Johns, T. C., 1997: On modification of global warming by sulfate aerosols. J. Climate 10, 245–267.
Moussiopoulos N., Flassak, T., Sahm, P. and Berlowitz, D., 1993: Simulations of the wind field in Athens with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MEMO. Environmental Software, 8–29.
Moussiopoulos, N., Sahm and Proyou, A., 1994: Numerical simulation of the wind field in Athens with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model MEMO. Environment Software, 8–29.
Rocha, A. and Gomes, J., 1994: Modelizaçâo do Clima da PenÃnsula Ibérica. 9a Conferência Nacional de FÃsica — FÃsica94 90, 29 pp.
Simmonds, I., and Lynch, A., 1992: The influence of pre-existing soil moisture content on Australian winter climate. Int. J. Climatology, 12, 33–54.
Simmonds, I., Trigg, G. and Law, R., 1988: The Climatology of the Melbourne University General Circulation Model. Publi. N° 31, Dept. of Meteor., University of Melbourne, 67 pp.
Tackle, E., Bramer, D., Heilman, W. and Thompson, M., 1994: A Synoptic Climatology for Forest Fires in the NE US and Future Implications from GCM Simulations. International Journal of Wildland Fire 4, 217–224.
Viegas, D., Sol, B., Bovio, G., Nosenzo, A. and Ferreira, A., 1994: Comparative study of various methods of fire danger evaluation in Southern Europe. Proc. of the 2 nd International Conference on Forest Fires Research. Coimbra, 21–24 November 1994, Portugal. Vol. II. 571–590.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 2001 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Carvalho, A.C., Carvalho, A., Miranda, A.I., Borrego, C., Rocha, A. (2001). Climate Change and Fire Weather Risk. In: India, M.B., Bonillo, D.L. (eds) Detecting and Modelling Regional Climate Change. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_47
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-662-04313-4_47
Publisher Name: Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg
Print ISBN: 978-3-642-07594-0
Online ISBN: 978-3-662-04313-4
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive