Abstract
Global transport of radioactive tracers emitted from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant was simulated by using an atmospheric transport model, and the levels of uncertainties in the results were investigated. These uncertainties are attributed to the reanalysis atmospheric data used as the input of the transport model and imprecision of the details of the radiation flux time series. Simulation results were found using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data, the atmospheric general circulation model for the Earth Simulator—local ensemble transform Kalman filter experimental ensemble reanalysis 2 (ALERA2) data, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA Interim data, and the Japan Meteorological Agency Climate Data Assimilation System (JCIDAS) data. The standard deviation of the simulation results using these data sets was larger than the standard deviations (which were within 10 % of the mean values) of the results using the data of the ALERA2 ensemble members. Simulation results of 1-day emissions showed a clear difference in the transport of the emitted tracer and suggest the availability of an inverse method to estimate a detailed flux time series.
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Acknowledgments
The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set was downloaded from the homepage of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory. The ALERA2 data were provided by the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology. The ERA Interim data was downloaded from the homepage of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Data Server. The JCIDAS data was downloaded from the home page of Japan Meteorological Agency. The figures in this paper were drawn using the Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) of the Institute of Global Environment and Society, Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies.
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Iguchi, T., Mukougawa, H., Enomoto, T. (2014). Uncertainty in Simulation of Global Transport of Radioactive Tracer Emitted from Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant. In: Kawase, H. (eds) Studies on the 2011 Off the Pacific Coast of Tohoku Earthquake. Natural Disaster Science and Mitigation Engineering: DPRI reports. Springer, Tokyo. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54418-0_13
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-4-431-54418-0_13
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