Demographic Change as a Strategic Constraint: Issues and Options

Abstract

This chapter provides a summary of findings that, in its entirety, illustrates the scope, relevance and urgency of the military recruitment challenge in Germany. It also provides solution approaches referring to the experiences of allied partners. As a general conclusion, there is insecurity about future military manpower demand and supply. Demographic change may exacerbate security risks in developing countries and reduce the security capacity of Western states. Changes in the international military environment will influence future missions and the organization of the military. Some demographic variables that may influence the number and character of missions include population growth, natural resource scarcity, high proportions of youth, high sex ratios, rapid urbanization, and demographic aging. In less developed countries, demographic change usually works as the last straw in regions already strained by territorial, ideological, or environmental conflict and economic hardship. In more developed countries, demographic aging may negatively affect various basic conditions of military interventions abroad, including domestic politics, the government budget, and military recruitment. To maintain sufficient force levels in the future, the Bundeswehr should focus more on unexploited recruitment potentials.