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The Delphi Technique and Judgmental Forecasting

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Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences

Abstract

The Delphi technique for judgmental forecasting by expert groups is described and the controversy surrounding its use is summarized. The technique clearly does not eliminate all unwanted psychological effects on group judgment. Furthermore, the design of most Delphi studies makes it impossible to separate the signal from the noise in expert judgment. A methodological standard for evaluating judgmental forecasts is proposed.

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Author information

Author notes

  1. Thomas R. Stewart

    Present address: Center for Research on Judgment and Policy, University of Colorado, Campus Box 344, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Environmental and Societal Impacts Group, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, 80307, USA

    Thomas R. Stewart

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  1. Thomas R. Stewart
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Editor information

Editors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Sociology, Duke University, Durham, NC, USA

    Kenneth C. Land

  2. N.C.A.R., Boulder, CO, USA

    Stephen H. Schneider

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© 1987 D. Reidel Publishing Company

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Stewart, T.R. (1987). The Delphi Technique and Judgmental Forecasting. In: Land, K.C., Schneider, S.H. (eds) Forecasting in the Social and Natural Sciences. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-009-4011-6_5

  • Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht

  • Print ISBN: 978-94-010-8279-2

  • Online ISBN: 978-94-009-4011-6

  • eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive

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