Abstract
Predicting the future behaviour of natural and economic processes is the subject of research in various fields of science. After a period of considerable progress by refining models in combination with large scale computer calculations, the scientific community is presently confronted with problems that require a novel approach to further extend the range of forecasts and to improve their quality. It is recognized that nonlinearity of a system may significantly complicate the predictability of future states of the system. A small variation of parameters can drastically change the dynamics, while sensitive dependence on the initial state may severely limit the predictability horizon.
Access this chapter
Tax calculation will be finalised at checkout
Purchases are for personal use only
Preview
Unable to display preview. Download preview PDF.
References
Beck, M.B. (1991), ‘Forecasting Environmental Change’, J. Forecasting, 10 (1&2), 3–19.
Casdagli, M. (1992), ‘Chaos and deterministic versus stochastic modelling’, J. Royal Statistical Society B54, 303–328.
Feder, J. (1988), ‘Fractals’, Plenum Press, New York.
Lorenz, E. (1963), ‘Deterministic non-periodic flow’, J. Atmosph. Sci 20, 130–141.
May, R.M. (1976), ‘Simple mathematical models with very complicated dynamics’, Nature 261, 459–467.
Olsen, L.F., and W. Schaffer (1990), ‘Chaos versus noisy periodicity: alternative hypotheses for childhood epidemics’, Science 249, 499–504.
van Straten, G. and K.J. Keesman (1991), ‘Uncertainty propagation and speculation in projective forecasts of environmental change: a lake eutrophication example’, J. Forecasting, 10 (1&2), 163–190.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Editor information
Editors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
Copyright information
© 1994 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht
About this chapter
Cite this chapter
Grasman, J., Van Straten, G. (1994). Introduction. In: Grasman, J., van Straten, G. (eds) Predictability and Nonlinear Modelling in Natural Sciences and Economics. Springer, Dordrecht. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_1
Download citation
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-011-0962-8_1
Publisher Name: Springer, Dordrecht
Print ISBN: 978-94-010-4416-5
Online ISBN: 978-94-011-0962-8
eBook Packages: Springer Book Archive