Lessons from the size efficiency hypothesis II. The mire of complexity

Abstract

Over the years, models and concepts developed to explain the behaviour of lake plankton have been generalized and extended to most parts of the limnetic community. This development has now fused with parallel research programs into stream and marine benthos and fish, to yield an imposing literature dealing with complex interactions in aquatic communities. Although the size of this literature has grown, its basic elements, i.e. the allometries of organismal capacity and environmental opportunity, remain those associated with the seminal size efficiency hypothesis. Unfortunately, the difficulties that eventually buried that hypothesis in a welter of detail and special cases were not resolved, so the newer, broader concepts associated with complex interactions remain difficult or impossible to test. Those concepts are so subjective, poorly defined, and variably interpreted that they are more effective in explaining our observations after the fact than in predicting them before-hand. Despite predictive failure, such explanatory models have achieved wide acceptance. Once accepted as substitutes for predictive theory, they mire the advance of science by hiding its deficiencies. One solution to this cloying complexity is insistence that the theories of ecology specify simple, observable response variables so that theories may be evaluated by their predictive power. Components of a ‘general refuge concept’ illustrate the point. This policy has implications for environmental science well beyond the confines of plankton ecology.