Reconstruction of Nineteenth Century Summer Temperatures in Norway by Proxy Data from Farmers’ Diaries

Abstract

Proxy data from five farmers’ diaries in the Møre, Dovre and Trondelag regions in central Norway were used for climatic reconstruction purposes. The method chosen was “simple linear regression analysis” with the start of the grain harvest (barley or oats) as predictor and summer temperature (May — August) as predictand. Overlapping periods with modern instrumental observations (starting 1858 or later) were used for calibration of the model. The model was tested on independent data by establishing the regression on one half of the overlapping period and applying the regression on the other half. The standard deviation in the residuals varied from 0.3°C to 0.7°C and the biases of the mean values from −0.3°C to +0.3°C. Climatic reconstructions were established for the early- and mid-nineteenth century summer temperature, i.e. during the last part of what has come to be regarded as the “Little Ice Age”, in this article considered to end around 1880.

By use of the proxy data model, huge inhomogeneities of the “classical” Trondheim series were detected, the early nineteenth century part of the series evidently being too warm. The inhomogeneity was removed by use of adjustment terms. The adjusted series indicates that in the Trondheim region the summer temperature during the last part of the “Little Ice Age” phase was about 1°C lower than the latest 60 years. This is in serious contradiction to the classical Trondheim series.