Abstract
Seasonal design floods that consider seasonal variation information are very important for reservoir operation and management. The current seasonal design flood method in China is based on the seasonal maximum samples and assumes that the seasonal design frequency is equal to the annual design frequency. Because the return period associated with annual maximum floods is taken as common flood prevention standard in China, the current seasonal design flood cannot satisfy prevention standards. A new seasonal design flood method that considers the flood occurrence dates and magnitudes of the peaks (runoff) is introduced based on copula function. The mixed von Mises distribution is used as the margin distribution of flood occurrence dates. The P-III and the exponential distributions are used as the margin distributions of flood magnitude for annual maximum flood series and peak-over-threshold samples, respectively. The case study results show that the method can satisfy the flood prevention standard and provide more information about the flood occurrence probabilities in each sub-season. The economic analysis results show that the copula-based design flood method can enhance the floodwater utilization rate and economic benefits without downgrading the annual flood protection standard.
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Chen, L., Guo, S. (2019). Copula-Based Seasonal Design Flood Estimation. In: Copulas and Its Application in Hydrology and Water Resources. Springer Water. Springer, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0574-0_4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-0574-0_4
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