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Belt and Road vs the Indo-Pacific

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China’s Achilles’ Heel

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Abstract

The events which followed since the China’s BRI proposal, such as Doklam standoff, substantially increased India’s threat perception towards China. However, India’s rejection and criticism of BRI and perceived bold stand against Chinese ambitions in Indian Ocean Region convinced U.S that India is a determined balancer of China. It triggered the renewed Indo-Pacific strategy with India-U.S partnership as its core. Chinese analysts believe that Indian opposition to the BRI triggered Indo-Pacific strategy, it is viewed as a counter strategy to BRI. Chinese argue that Indo-Pacific strategy will bring India into the Pacific Ocean. The initial Chinese skepticism that Trump will not partner with India was also disproved, Chinese believe that Trump only strengthened U.S partnership with India and its aspiration to become a great power. Chinese believe that they can “wait it out” Indo-Pacific strategy.

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Notes

  1. 1.

    Brook Larmer, “Is China the World’s New Colonial Power?,” The New York Times, May 2, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/02/magazine/is-china-the-worlds-new-colonial-power.html (accessed November 8, 2017).

  2. 2.

    Jane Perlez and Yufan Huang, “Behind China’s $1 Trillion Plan to Shake Up the Economic Order,” The New York Times, May 13, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/13/business/china-railway-one-belt-one-road-1-trillion-plan.html (accessed November 8, 2017).

  3. 3.

    Jane Perlez, “China Creates a World Bank of its Own, and the U.S. Balks,” The New York Times, December 5, 2015, https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/05/business/international/china-creates-an-asian-bank-as-the-us-stands-aloof.html (accessed November 12, 2017).

  4. 4.

    Roger Yu, “China chases U.S. in goal to be superpower,” USA Today, March 2, 2017.

  5. 5.

    David Ignatius, “President Trump would hand the world to China,” Washington Post, May 31, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/president-trump-would-hand-china-the-world/2016/05/31/e4d1b1f8-2771-11e6-ae4a-3cdd5fe74204_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.d69f04c3c4da (accessed November 9, 2017).

  6. 6.

    “Caucus Brief: Threats From Russia, China Drive 2017 Defense Budget,” States News Service, February 2, 2016.

  7. 7.

    See Dr. Michael Pillsbury’s statement to U.S. Senate Subcommittee on East Asia, the Pacific, and International Cybersecurity Policy, Dr. Michael Pillsbury, “American Leadership in the Asia-Pacific, Part 4: The View from Beijing,” November 14, 2017, https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/111417_Pillsbury_Testimony.pdf (accessed December 19, 2017).

  8. 8.

    Joe Mcdonald, Munir Ahmed And Gillian Wong, “‘Silk Road’ plan stirs unease over China’s strategic goals,” Associated Press Financial Wire, May 11, 2017, https://apnews.com/b4667b8165294d88a4d1eff53caafecd (accessed November 19, 2017); James Griffiths, “China’s new world order: Xi, Putin and others meet for Belt and Road Forum,” CNN Wire, May 14, 2017, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/05/13/asia/china-belt-and-road-forum-xi-putin-erdogan/index.html (accessed November 19, 2017); Rishi Iyengar, “India boycotts China’s global trade jamboree,” CNN Wire, May 15, 2017, https://money.cnn.com/2017/05/15/news/economy/china-belt-road-india-boycott/index.html (accessed November 19, 2017). Jane Perlez and Keith Bradsher, “Xi Jinping Positions China at Center of New Economic Order,” The New York Times, May 14, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/14/world/asia/xi-jinping-one-belt-one-road-china.html (accessed November 19, 2017).

  9. 9.

    Gerry Shih and Muneeza Naqvi, “China demands India leave Himalayan plateau in rising spat,” Washington Times, July 5, 2017, https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jul/5/tensions-high-in-himalayas-as-china-demands-india-/ (accessed November 21, 2017).

  10. 10.

    James Griffiths, “Trump calls out Pakistan, India as he pledges to ‘fight to win’ in Afghanistan,” CNN Wire, August 22, 2017, https://edition.cnn.com/2017/08/21/politics/trump-afghanistan-pakistan-india/index.html (accessed November 23, 2017).

  11. 11.

    Steven Lee Myers, Ellen Barry and Max Fisher, “How India and China Have Come to the Brink over a Remote Mountain Pass,” The New York Times, July 26, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/26/world/asia/dolam-plateau-china-india-bhutan.html (accessed November 23, 2017).

  12. 12.

    Mark Landler and Gardiner Harris, “Trump Meets India’s Leader, a Fellow Nationalist Battling China for His Favor,” The New York Times, June 26, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/26/us/politics/donald-trump-narendra-modi-india.html (accessed November 23, 2017).

  13. 13.

    “Exercise MALABAR 2017 (July 9–17),” Indian Navy, July 2017, https://www.indiannavy.nic.in/content/exercise-malabar-2017 (accessed December 9, 2017).

  14. 14.

    See U.S. House Of Representatives Documents, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific Hearing; “Development Finance in Asia: U.S. Economic Strategy Amid China’s Belt and Road.”; Testimony by Jonathan Stivers, Commissioner, U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, (Former Assistant Administrator, Bureau for Asia, U.S. Agency for International Development), U.S. House of Representatives-Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific (Committee on Foreign Affairs), November 15, 2017, https://docs.house.gov/Committee/Calendar/ByEvent.aspx?EventID=106635 (accessed December 6, 2017).

  15. 15.

    Mira Rapp-Hooper, “The 5 things we learned from Trump’s Asia trip; There’s no clear strategy on Asia – Or the ‘Indo-Pacific’,” Washington Post, November 15, 2017, https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/11/15/the-5-things-we-learned-from-trumps-asia-trip/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.8a3904d3b869 (accessed November 23, 2017).

  16. 16.

    Mark Landler, “Trump Heads to Asia With an Ambitious Agenda but Little to Offer,” The New York Times, November 3, 2017, p. 7.

  17. 17.

    William J. Burns, Under Secretary for Political Affairs, “A Renewed U.S.-Thai Alliance for the 21st Century,” State Department Press Release, Speeches: A Renewed U.S.-Thai Alliance for the 21st Century, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand, July 16, 2010, https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/us/rm/2010/144774.htm (accessed November 23, 2017).

  18. 18.

    Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Secretary’s Remarks: America’s Engagement in the Asia-Pacific,” State Department Press Release, Honolulu, HI, October 28, 2010, https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2010/10/150141.htm (accessed November 26, 2017).

  19. 19.

    Hillary Clinton, “America’s Pacific Century,” Foreign Policy, November 2011, p. 59.

  20. 20.

    Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Delivering on the Promise of Economic Statecraft,” Speech delivered in Singapore Management University, November 17, 2012, https://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2012/11/200664.htm (accessed November 26, 2017).

  21. 21.

    Joseph Yun, “The Rebalance to Asia: Why South Asia Matters (Part 1),” Acting Assistant Secretary, Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Public Affairs Documents, Testimony, Statement Before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia and the Pacific, Washington, DC, February 26, 2013, https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2013/02/205208.htm (accessed January 3, 2018).

  22. 22.

    Liao Kai, “Mei jun “Yatai zai pingheng” zhanlue ji qi mianlin de bu queding yinsu” [The U.S military’s Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy and the uncertainties it faces], Junshi Wenzhai [Military Digest], No. 15 (2015), 14.

  23. 23.

    Wu Zhaoli, ““Yintai” de yuanqi yu duoguo zhanlue boyi” [The origins of Indo-Pacific and the multinational strategic games], Taipingyang Xuebao [Pacific Journal], No. 1 (2014), p. 34, 39.

  24. 24.

    Li Zhonglin, ““Yintai” bing bu wan quan shi ge huai dongxi” [Indo-pacific is not really a bad thing], Zhongguo jingji zhoukan [China Economic Weekly], No. 20 (2013), p. 21.

  25. 25.

    Tang Yongsheng, Li Li and Fang Ke and Li Hongli, “Asia-Pacific’s Strategic Situation and Its Impact on China,” Contemporary International Relations, Vol. 23, No. 5 (September/October 2013), p. 14.

  26. 26.

    Cao Xiaoyang, “Meiguo “Yintai” hai shang an quan zhan lue bu shu ji qi ying xiang” [United States of America’s “Indo-Pacific” maritime security strategic deployment and its impact], Xiandai guoji guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], No. 8 (2014), p. 35.

  27. 27.

    Zhang Li, “Meiguo “Yintai” lianmeng zhanlue de kunjing yu Zhongguo de yingdui” [Dilemmas of America’s Indo-Pacific Alliance Strategy and the Countermeasures of China], Nanya yanjiu jikan [South Asian Studies Quarterly], No. 4 (2016), p. 30.

  28. 28.

    Hu Xin, “Yindu qianshou Mei Ri Ao zhen lianmeng haishi jia lianyin?” [India joins U.S, Japan and Australia: True alliance or fake marriage], Shijie Zhishi [World Affairs], No. 24 (2017), p. 50.

  29. 29.

    Xue Li, “Meiguo zai pingheng zhanlue yu Zhongguo “yi dai yi lu”” [U.S Rebalancing strategy and China’s BRI], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi [World Economics and Politics], No. 5 (2016), p. 64.

  30. 30.

    Ibid., p. 73.

  31. 31.

    Cai Junhuang, CAI Jiafu, “guojia jingji anquan shiyu xia Yindu yang yu Zhongguo “hai si” chang yi” [The Indian Ocean and China’s “Maritime Silk” initiative from the perspective of national economic security], Fujian Xingzheng xueyuan xuebao [Journal of Fujian Administration Institute], No. 6 (2016), p. 83.

  32. 32.

    Ibid., p. 85.

  33. 33.

    Tang Yongsheng, Li Li and Fang Ke and Li Hongli, p. 14.

  34. 34.

    Li Zhonglin, p. 21.

  35. 35.

    Zhao Qinghai, ““Yintai” gai nian ji qi dui Zhongguo de hanyi” [The concept of Indo-Pacific and its implications for China], Xiandai guoji guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], No. 7 (2013), pp. 20–22.

  36. 36.

    Weizong You, “Meiguo zai Yintai diqu de zhanlue tiaozheng jiqi diyuan zhanlue yingxiang” [The strategic adjustment of the United States in the indo-pacific region and its geo-strategic impact], Shijie Jingji yu Zhengzhi [World Economics and Politics], No. 10 (2013), pp. 154–155.

  37. 37.

    Lou Yaping and Yu Yunqing, “Yindu “dong xiang xingdong zhengce” fazhan yu Zhongguo de yingdui” [The Progress of India’s Act East Policy and China’s Response], Guoji guanxi yanjiu [Journal of International Relations], No. 4 (2016), p. 135.

  38. 38.

    Xu Juan, “MeiYin Zhanlue yuanjing: “quanqiu yaobai guojia” dingwei ji jiedu” [U.S-India Strategic Prospects: Positioning and Interpreting “Global Swing States”], Nanya Yanjiu [South Asian Studies], No. 3 (2015), p. 42.

  39. 39.

    Wang Tao, ““Yintai” diyuan zhengzhi gainian shijiao xia de MeiYin fangwu guanxi” [U.S.-India defence relations from the perspective of the geopolitical concept of Indo-Pacific], Xiandai Junshi [Conmilit], No. 7 (2015), p. 38.

  40. 40.

    Ibid., p. 40.

  41. 41.

    Ibid., p. 44.

  42. 42.

    Lou Chunhao, “MeiYin fangwu hezuo xin taishi ping gu” [New Trends in US-India Defence Cooperation and its Implications], Guoji Wenti Yanjiu [International Studies], No. 1 (2017), pp. 110–111.

  43. 43.

    Rong Ying, “cong “Ma la ba er” junyan kan daguo Yintai zhanlue hudong xin taishi” [The New Trend of Major Powers’ Indo-Pacific Strategic Interaction: From the Perspective of the “Malabar” Exercise], Heping yu fazhan [Peace and Development], No. 5 (2017), pp. 55, 61.

  44. 44.

    Li Jiacheng and Li Ang, “RiYin anbao tixi goujian de dongli kaocha” [An Analysis of the Driving Forces behind the Construction of Japan-India Security System], Taipingyang Xuebao [Pacific Journal], No. 8 (2015), p. 53.

  45. 45.

    Ibid., p. 54.

  46. 46.

    Zhu Qingxiu, “Riben de “Yintai” zhanlue nengfou chenggong?” [Can Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Succeed?], Dongbeiya luntan [Northeast Asia Forum], No. 3 (2016), p. 105.

  47. 47.

    Sun Xianpu, ““Yintai” yujing xia de YinRi fangwu hezuo” [India-Japan defence cooperation under the context of the Indo-Pacific], Lilun Shiye [Theoretical Horizon], No. 3 (2017), p. 81.

  48. 48.

    Lou Yaping and Yu Yunqing, p. 129.

  49. 49.

    Ibid., p. 130.

  50. 50.

    Hu Xiaowen, “Cong celuexing jieru dao zhanluexing bushu-Yindu jieru nanhai wenti de xin dongxiang” [Involvement to Strategic Deployment: India’s New Policy Trends towards South China Sea], Guoji Zhanwang [Global Review], No. 2 (2014), p. 95.

  51. 51.

    Ibid., pp. 107–108.

  52. 52.

    Hu Zhiyong, “Meiguo jiji suzao “Yintai” zhanlue geju ji qi diyuan yingxiang” [US Efforts in Shaping Indo-Pacific Strategic Pattern and Its Geographical Impact], Nanya yanjiu jikan [South Asian Studies Quarterly], No. 1 (2016), p. 3.

  53. 53.

    Xu Juan, ““Yintai” yujing xia de MeiYinRi Haiyang anquan hezuo” [U.S.-India-Japan Maritime Security Cooperation under the Context of “Indo-Pacific” construct], Nanya Yanjiu [South Asian Studies], No. 2 (2017), p. 99.

  54. 54.

    Hu Zhiyong, “Meiguo jiji suzao “Yintai” zhanlue geju ji qi diyuan yingxiang” [US Efforts in Shaping Indo-Pacific Strategic Pattern and Its Geographical Impact], Nanya yanjiu jikan [South Asian Studies Quarterly], No. 1 (2016), p. 3.

  55. 55.

    Ibid., p. 8.

  56. 56.

    Ji Cheng and Song Dexing, “Yintai shiyu xia de Zhong, Mei, Yin haishang diyuan boyi-biaoxiang yu shizhi” [The Expressions and Essence of the Geopolitical Game between China, U.S. and India from the Perspective of Indo-Pacific Concept], Yatai anquan yu Haiyang yanjiu [Asia-Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs], No. 5 (2017), p. 37.

  57. 57.

    Mao keji, “Yintai Zhanlue xia de MeiYin xietiao: Shang nan qude shizhixing jinzhan” [Coordination between U.S and India under the Indo-Pacific strategy: It is still difficult to make substantive progress], Shijie Zhishi [World Affairs], No. 23 (2017), p. 35.

  58. 58.

    Ren Yuanzhe, “Yindu waijiao linian de yanjin yu Modi zhengfu waijiao biange chutan” [Explorations on the Evolution of India’s Diplomatic Thoughts and Modi Government’s Diplomatic Transformation], Taipingyang Xuebao [Pacific Journal], No. 10 (2017), p. 48.

  59. 59.

    Yang Siling, “Yindu yu Mei Ri haiyang anquan hudong: jingong xing xianshi zhuyi shijiao” [Maritime Security Interaction of India with the United States and Japan: From the Perspective of Offensive Realism], Guoji anquan yanjiu [Journal of International Security Studies], No. 5 (2017), pp. 54–55.

  60. 60.

    Jawaharlal Nehru, The Discovery of India (Delhi: Oxford University Press, 1985), p. 536.

  61. 61.

    Yang Siling, pp. 57–58.

  62. 62.

    Ibid., p. 78.

  63. 63.

    Liu Yanfeng, “Telangpu shangtai dui YinMei guanxi de tiaozhan yu yingxiang” [The Challenges and Impacts on India-US Relations after Trump Came into power], Guoji guanxi yanjiu [Journal of International Relations], No. 4 (2017), p. 148.

  64. 64.

    Hu Xin, “Yindu qianshou Mei Ri Ao zhen lianmeng haishi jia lianyin?” [India joins U.S, Japan and Australia: True alliance or fake marriage], p. 51.

  65. 65.

    Hu Xin, “xiang dong kan de geng yuan: Yindu quanqiu waijiao zou jin nan tai ping yang” [Looking too far towards East: India’s global diplomacy heads into the south Pacific], Shijie Zhishi [World Affairs], No. 24 (2014), pp. 34–35.

  66. 66.

    Lou Yaping and Yu Yunqing, “Yindu “dong xiang xingdong zhengce” fazhan yu Zhongguo de yingdui” [The Progress of India’s Act East Policy and China’s Response], p. 134.

  67. 67.

    Liu Yanfeng, “Telangpu shangtai dui YinMei guanxi de tiaozhan yu yingxiang” [The Challenges and Impacts on India-US Relations after Trump Came into power], p. 139.

  68. 68.

    Lin Minwang, “Yindu jiang chong dang Meiguo xin Yazhou zhengce de “zhi zhu”” [India will be the “anchor” of America’s new Asian policy], Shijie Zhishi [World Affairs], No. 22 (2017), p. 74.

  69. 69.

    Sun Xianpu, “Telangpu shiqi de MeiYin guanxi fazhan quxiang” [Trends in U.S-India relations during the trump era], Yinduyang jingjiti yanjiu [Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review], No. 5 (2017), p. 29.

  70. 70.

    Ibid., p. 38.

  71. 71.

    Baiyun Jushi, “Telangpu “yi tui wei jin” de xin zhanlue Meiguo Yintai zhanlue zongshu (shang)” [Trump’s New Strategy of “retreat in order to advance”: A Review of American Indo-Pacific strategy (part 1)], Tanke Zhuangjia cheliang [Tank and armoured vehicle], No. 2 (2018), p. 9.

  72. 72.

    Ibid., pp. 10–11.

  73. 73.

    Xia Liping and Zhong Qi, “Telangpu zhengfu “Yintai zhanlue gouxiang” pingxi” [Analysis of Indo-Pacific Strategy under Trump Administration], Xiandai guoji guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], No. 1 (2018), p. 22.

  74. 74.

    The White House, National Security Strategy of the United States of America, December 2017, p. 25, https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2017/12/NSS-Final-12-18-2017-0905.pdf. (Accessed January 3, 2018).

  75. 75.

    Ibid., p. 50.

  76. 76.

    Yang Rui and Wang Shida, “Yindu yu “Yintai zhanlue gouxiang”: ding wei, jie ru ji juxian” [India and Indo-Pacific Strategy: Perception, Participation and Limitation], Xiandai guoji guanxi [Contemporary International Relations], No. 1 (2018), p. 46.

  77. 77.

    Baiyun Jushi, “Telangpu “yi tui wei jin” de xin zhanlue Meiguo Yintai zhanlue zongshu (xia)” [Trump’s New Strategy of “retreat in order to advance”: A Review of America’s Indo-Pacific strategy (part 2)], Tanke Zhuangjia cheliang [Tank and armoured vehicle], No. 4 (2018), pp. 23–27.

  78. 78.

    Liao Kai, “Mei jun “Yatai zai pingheng” zhanlue ji qi mianlin de bu queding yinsu” [The U.S military’s Asia-Pacific rebalancing strategy and the uncertainties it faces], p. 14.

  79. 79.

    Ibid., p. 16.

  80. 80.

    Chen Jimin, “Telangpu zhengfu “Yintai zhanlue”: zhengce yu xiandu” [The Indo-Pacific Strategy of the Trump Administration: Policy and Limitation], Heping yu fazhan [Peace and Development], No. 1 (2018), p. 37.

  81. 81.

    Chen Bangyu and Wei Hong, “MeiAoYin “Yintai” zhanlue gouxiang de yi tong yu Zhongguo de yingdui” [The similarities and differences between the American, Australian and Indian conception of “Indo-Pacific” strategic concept and China’s response], Shehui Zhuyi Yanjiu [Socialism Studies], No. 6 (2015), pp. 147–148.

  82. 82.

    Ibid., pp. 152–153.

  83. 83.

    Cai Junhuang, CAI Jiafu, “guojia jingji anquan shiyu xia Yindu yang yu Zhongguo “hai si” chang yi” [The Indian Ocean and China’s “Maritime Silk” initiative from the perspective of national economic security], p. 88.

  84. 84.

    Li Jiacheng and Li Ang, “RiYin anbao tixi goujian de dongli kaocha” [An Analysis of the Driving Forces behind the Construction of Japan-India Security System], p. 55.

  85. 85.

    Yu Fangqiong, ““YinTai” yujing xia de Yindu dongxiang waijiao” [India’s Look East Policy under the context of Indo-Pacific], Yinduyang jingjiti yanjiu [Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review], No. 2 (2016), p. 64.

  86. 86.

    Baiyun Jushi, “Telangpu “yi tui wei jin” de xin zhanlue Meiguo Yintai zhanlue zongshu (shang)” [Trump’s New Strategy of “retreat in order to advance”: A Review of American Indo-Pacific strategy (part 1)], p. 12.

  87. 87.

    Zhang HengBin, “cong diyuan zhanlue kan dongmeng zai Meiguo Yintai gainian zhong de diwei” [From a geostrategic perspective the position of ASEAN in the American Indio-Pacific concept], Nan Fang Lun Kan [The Southern Journal], No. 11 (2015), p. 16; India’s non-alignment foreign policy tradition is frequently cited by Chinese experts to show that it will not have a close relationship with either the US or Japan; see Zhu Qingxiu, “Riben de “Yintai” zhanlue nengfou chenggong?” [Can Japan’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Succeed?], Dongbeiya luntan [Northeast Asia Forum], No. 3 (2016); Hu Xin, “Yindu qianshou Mei Ri Ao zhen lianmeng haishi jia lianyin?” [India joins U.S, Japan and Australia: True alliance or fake marriage], Shijie Zhishi [World Affairs], No. 24 (2017), p. 51.

  88. 88.

    Zhang Li, “Meiguo “Yintai” lianmeng zhanlue de kunjing yu Zhongguo de yingdui” [Dilemmas of America’s Indo-Pacific Alliance Strategy and the Countermeasures of China], p. 30.

  89. 89.

    Wang Xiaowen, “ZhongYin zai Yinduyang shang de zhanlue chongtu yu hezuo qianzhi – jiyu ZhongMeiYin “zhanlue sanjiao” geju de shijiao” [The potential of Sino-Indian strategic conflict and cooperation in the Indian Ocean: From the perspective of Sino-U.S-India strategic triangle], Shijie jingji yu zhengzhi luntan [Forum of World Economics & Politics], No. 1 (2017), p. 61.

  90. 90.

    Hu Xin, “xiang dong kan de geng yuan: Yindu quanqiu waijiao zou jin nan tai ping yang” [Looking too far towards East: India’s global diplomacy heads into the south Pacific], pp. 34–35.

  91. 91.

    Yang Siling, “Yindu yu Mei Ri haiyang anquan hudong: jingong xing xianshi zhuyi shijiao” [Maritime Security Interaction of India with the United States and Japan: From the Perspective of Offensive Realism], p. 78.

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    Srikanth Thaliyakkattil

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Thaliyakkattil, S. (2019). Belt and Road vs the Indo-Pacific. In: China’s Achilles’ Heel. Palgrave Macmillan, Singapore. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-13-8425-7_7

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