Reliability-Based Performance Evaluation for a Stochastic Project Network Under Time and Budget Thresholds

Abstract

This study develops a performance indicator, named project reliability, to measure the probability that a stochastic project network (SPN) can be successfully completed under both time and budget thresholds. The SPN is represented in the form of AOA (activity-on-arc) diagram, in which each activity has several possible durations with the corresponding costs and probability distribution. From the perspective of minimal path, two algorithms are proposed to generate upper and lower limit vectors which satisfy both time and budget, respectively. Next, the project reliability is evaluated in terms of such upper and lower limit vectors. The procedure of reliability evaluation can be applied to the SPN with arbitrary probability distribution. Such an indicator is a beneficial factor of the trade-off between the time and budget in a decision scenario.