From the Iraq-Kuwait Conflict to the Gulf War

Abstract

Although the effects of the Gulf War following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait are proving to be far fewer than predicted,¹ the statement that this war has been the major event in the Middle East since the First World War and the concomitant dissolution of the Ottoman Empire still holds good. It is true that none of the political regimes of the Middle East — not even that established by Saddam Hussein — has fallen. It is also true that no changes have occurred in the boundaries of existing nominal nation-states in the region, as many pundits claiming to be Middle East experts predicted in the mass media. The list of predictions that have not come true could be continued. However, the fact that existing boundaries and regimes have not altered, either during the war itself or in its aftermath, should not be taken to mean that the former status quo is simply continuing. Some experts argue that we have returned to pre-war conditions, in as much as the status quo ante has in legal terms been re-established. The tribe of the al-Sabbah dynasty has returned to power in Kuwait,² the Saudis³ are still in possession of the monarchy, while the artificial nation-state of Iraq⁴ has survived not only the war, but even the ethno-religious revolts of Shiites in the south and Kurds in the north.