Abstract
Most countries including China are losing agricultural share in GDP, even as food production grows faster than population. The global manufacturing share has held steady over recent decades, but it has declined in Western countries and risen in Eastern countries. China is, of course, a large part of the story, but so too is Japan’s stagnation, Korea’s rise, and Europe’s drop in the ranks. The global pie has grown and so has the Eastern share, while the decline of Western manufacturing is greatly exaggerated.
Tradable services constitute the current revolution in the global industrial shift.
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Notes
See Appendix C for a complete list. The field is limited to those 177 countries listed by the UN that have been in existence since 1970. The main exclusions in the figure are the former Soviet states that (re)gained independence after the 1990 collapse, and, the only state with no agriculture, Monaco.
The figures in this section refer to constant %US of 1990 quoted in the UN National Accounts online database.
Japan is on the verge of being overtaken by China in 2008. Recent reports state that China has surpassed both Japan and the US in factory output in 2011. While there is no doubt that China has increased its output faster than most countries, and its rank is rising, there remains some controversy about surpassing the US. Reports making that claim are based on current prices (not adjusted for inflation). Using current prices, China’s factory output exceeds the US by about 20$ in 2011. Using constant prices of the year 2005, the US still exceeds China’s factory output by 28$. All figures from the UN.
FRBSF Economic Newsletter 2011–25, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco (FRBSF), August 8, 2011.
http://investor.illumina.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=121127&p=irolnewsArticle_ print&ID=1374343&highlight=
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© 2013 Joe Atikian
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Atikian, J. (2013). Power Shift: East and West. In: Industrial Shift: The Structure of the New World Economy. Palgrave Pivot, New York. https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137340313_5
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/9781137340313_5
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