Uncertainty in Crisis Management

Synonyms

Naturalistic models of decision-making; Participative decision-making and crisis management; Policy making and crisis management; Rational model of decision-making

Definition

Uncertainty is a sense of doubt that inhibits a decision-maker from acting.

Introduction

A crisis is an event that poses a “serious threat to the basic structure or the fundamental values and norms of a system, which under time pressures and highly uncertain circumstances necessitates making critical decisions” (Rosenthal et al. 1989, 10). During such events, public administrators must be aware of, and seek to reduce or manage, the uncertainties present in their operational environment. While the meaning of uncertainty has been explored in fields such as mathematics, economics, statistics, and philosophy, decision-making and organizational theorists define uncertainty as a sense of doubt that blocks or delays action (Lipshitz and Strauss 1997). This definition frames the subsequent discussion of...